ContainerSignal Daily: Carriers edge back to Suez as rates fall

Almost all global ocean carriers are preparing a tentative return to Suez Canal transits on Asia-Europe sailings, with revised pro forma schedules showing Premier Alliance vessels booked through the Red Sea from November, according to reporting by The Loadstar published on gCaptain. The shift is landing at the same time as a clear turn in the rate cycle: Drewry’s World Container Index fell for the week to 1 October, and Xeneta says Far East to US rates have reached their post-Hormuz peak for 2026.

The combination matters for shippers. More Suez transits add effective capacity to Asia-Europe just as Golden Week removes a week of Chinese export demand, so the direction of freight rates for the rest of the fourth quarter now depends on whether carriers can hold capacity discipline through the holiday.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

Drewry’s World Container Index for the week to 1 October fell 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft container, driven by Asia-Europe, as reported by Daily Cargo News. On the transpacific, Shanghai to New York rose 1% to US$10,428 per 40ft container while Shanghai to Los Angeles held stable at US$7,835 per 40ft container. On Asia-Europe, Shanghai to Genoa fell 3% to US$3,702 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 2% to US$3,399 per 40ft container. Asia-Europe rates have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks. Our guide to container freight rate indexes explains how WCI, FBX and SCFI differ.

Xeneta’s weekly market update for 1 October reports a different balance. Spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast stood at US$8,346 per FEU, up 1.4% week on week and up 344.2% against the pre-Hormuz baseline of 28 February 2026. The Far East to US East Coast sat at US$11,523 per FEU, up 0.7% week on week and up 334.7% against the same baseline. Far East to North Europe was US$3,726 per FEU, down 2.1%, and Far East to Mediterranean US$4,105 per FEU, down 4.6%. North Europe to US East Coast was US$2,893 per FEU, down 2.2%.

Peter Sand, Xeneta’s chief analyst, said the market “has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026” but that no collapse is in sight, attributing the turn to Asian port congestion easing as typhoon season winds down and to Golden Week cutting Chinese exports. Xeneta projects Far East to US East Coast rates in the range of US$6,000 to US$7,000 per FEU and US West Coast US$4,500 to US$5,500 per FEU by early 2027, and notes the US East Coast to West Coast spread of US$3,177 per FEU is far wider than the US$772 per FEU recorded before the Hormuz crisis.

The Freightos Baltic Index showed a composite of US$3,340.75 when read on 2 October. The landing page does not display a reporting period alongside that figure, so it is quoted here as the level shown on the page on the date of reading rather than as a dated weekly print.

Carrier Updates

MSC will blank two sailings on its Asia-US East Coast network during and after China’s Golden Week, attributing the capacity adjustment to an anticipated slowdown in demand, per Container News. The affected voyages are week 40 on the America service (voyage GU640W) and week 42 on the Empire service (voyage GE642E). MSC said customers can continue booking as usual and that it is arranging alternatives. For background on how withdrawn capacity works, see what is a blank sailing.

Hapag-Lloyd has pushed back on concerns raised by Israeli authorities over its proposed US$4.2bn acquisition of ZIM, saying the positions taken relate to the original transaction structure and do not reflect improvements since made to the proposal, according to Container News. CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said Hapag-Lloyd and its partner FIMI will submit and explain the revised structure to the relevant Israeli authorities over coming weeks. Israel’s Government Companies Authority has ended its review of the original structure, and a materially revised deal requires a new application and fresh review.

CMA CGM has completed its US$1.4bn acquisition of FedEx Supply Chain, the contract logistics arm of FedEx, per FreightWaves. The deal triples Ceva Logistics’ North American warehouse footprint, adding about 34 million square feet of warehouse space and 130 customers, and takes the combined business to roughly 150 warehouses and more than 240 locations with a workforce of about 20,000. CMA CGM becomes a preferred ocean carrier for FedEx over several years, and the two plan to collaborate on air cargo capacity on routes including Asia-Europe.

Ports

The Port of Piraeus handled 241,290 TEU at Pier I in the first half of 2026, down 38.7% from 393,876 TEU a year earlier, according to Piraeus Port Authority results reported by WorldCargo News. Domestic volumes fell 33.1% to 91,967 TEU and transhipment dropped 41.8% to 149,323 TEU. PPA, in which COSCO Shipping holds 67%, attributed the fall to weaker commercial activity, an unusually strong comparison base in H1 2025 when shippers front-loaded cargo ahead of tariffs, and temporary reductions in stacking capacity during Mandatory Investment works at Pier I. Revenue fell 8.9% to EUR111.9m and net profit after tax fell 24.4% to EUR35.4m. PPA reported improved throughput at Piers II and III in recent months and said the Pier I works are designed to prepare the terminal for higher volumes, including those expected after a full Suez reopening.

The Panama Canal Authority will increase Neopanamax daily transits to 10 from 15 October 2026, for a total of 33 daily slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks, based on current and projected Gatun Lake levels, according to its Advisory to Shipping. The maximum authorised draft for Neopanamax transits is raised to 14.94 m (49.0 feet) with immediate effect until further notice. The authority said the Transit Reservation System remains the only way to guarantee a transit date, and that unreserved vessels may face indefinite delays.

Trade Routes

The return to Suez is no longer marginal. Linerlytica, cited by The Loadstar, reports that Cosco will make its first westbound Suez transit in more than two years with the 24,200 TEU OOCL Spain on the AEU1/LL1 service on 4 October (how container ships are sized sets out what those capacity figures mean), after nine eastbound voyages scheduled via the canal since mid-September. Last week was the busiest for containership transits through the canal since 2024, with 30 ships of over 4,000 TEU passing through, and the analyst calculates that 140 boxships, equivalent to just over 2m TEU of capacity, have switched from Cape of Good Hope routings to Suez since May. Premier Alliance’s FE1 Asia-North Europe service is set to send the 8,100 TEU One Continuity through the canal, departing Laem Chabang on 19 October, reaching Suez on 9 November and Rotterdam on 19 November, with the 9,000 TEU NYK Venus, 8,200 TEU ONE Hamburg and 9,000 TEU NYK Orion also scheduled for November and December transits. For background on how these joint services are structured, see what is a shipping alliance. Drewry separately noted, via Daily Cargo News, that Suez transits in week 39 were 68% higher than in the same week last year.

The Loadstar also cites an FT report that Houthi commanders sent a communique to the EU’s diplomatic service on 10 September promising not to attack European cargo ships. That is reported, not confirmed by the EU, and security conditions around Bab el-Mandeb remain contested.

In the Strait of Hormuz, a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting at about 1750 UTC on 1 October, causing a fire onboard, with the crew reported safe, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations Warning 147-26 as reported by gCaptain. UKMTO had already issued three warnings covering tanker strikes on 29 September, plus one covering a strike on 28 September. The Joint Maritime Information Center counted four confirmed attacks or disruptions in the strait over the preceding 96 hours and kept the regional threat level at SEVERE. None of the reported incidents involved container ships, but they matter to boxship operators through war risk insurance pricing, bunker cost and routing decisions on Middle East services.

Regulation & Policy

Hapag-Lloyd has told customers that Malaysia’s “No Manifest, No Load” requirement now applies to export cargo with immediate effect, per Container News. Under the Royal Malaysian Customs Department rule, containers need a valid and complete K5 export manifest before loading, with complete Shipping Instructions submitted at least 48 hours before the vessel’s estimated arrival at the Malaysian port of loading. Cargo transshipping through Malaysia requires the K6 transshipment manifest information 48 hours before the vessel reaches the transshipment port. Cargo with missing, incomplete or late instructions may be refused loading and rolled to a later vessel, with customers potentially liable for resulting costs. Westports, Northport and Port of Tanjung Pelepas will enforce the rule, and the 48-hour deadline remains in effect until further notice.

The United Kingdom sanctioned eight vessels in a package of 31 new measures covering Russian energy revenues and maritime logistics, according to gCaptain. The maritime portion targets three vessels described as part of Russia’s shadow fleet, two ships providing bunkering services and three Russian-owned ice-class vessels, five of them LNG carriers. The UK said it has now sanctioned nearly 600 tankers linked to efforts to move Russian energy outside Western restrictions, and that restrictions on maritime transportation and related services for Russian LNG expand from 1 January 2027, with transitional exemptions for shipments to Japan and South Korea.

Quick Bites

• Maersk will introduce and revise a Peak Season Surcharge on shipments from the east coast of South America (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay) to North Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, East and West Mediterranean, Scandinavia, the Baltics and the Black Sea. The charge is US$500 per container on all dry and reefer equipment, from a Price Calculation Date of 1 November 2026, per Container News.
• Rhine water levels have hit new record lows in Germany, with the gauge at Kaub below zero and record lows at Cologne, Dusseldorf and Duisburg, as reported by TrasportoEuropa. North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate extended an exemption from the Sunday and public holiday driving ban for heavy goods vehicles until 31 October 2026. Restricted barge capacity pushes inland container flows toward rail and road.
• Sea-Intelligence warns that scheduled Asia-North Europe capacity around Golden Week is 60% above pre-pandemic levels, much of it from delayed vessels rather than new sailings, and that late blank sailings and rolled cargo are likely in mid-October while schedule reliability remains very low, per TrasportoEuropa.

What It Means

Two forces are colliding on Asia-Europe. Suez transits are adding effective capacity at a pace the trade has not seen since 2024, and Drewry attributes the 12-week decline in Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa rates partly to exactly that. Against this, carriers are trying to reset pricing with higher FAK rates in the second half of October once Golden Week ends, and Drewry says the success of those increases remains uncertain. Shippers with contract renewals due in the fourth quarter should expect the spot market to stay soft on Asia-Europe while the transatlantic and transpacific legs, still well above pre-Hormuz levels on Xeneta’s data, correct more slowly.

There is also an operational layer. With Malaysian customs now refusing to load cargo lacking a complete 48-hour manifest and the UK widening its tanker sanctions net, documentation discipline and counterparty screening carry direct rollover risk. On the fleet side, CMA CGM’s completed FedEx Supply Chain purchase and Hapag-Lloyd’s unresolved ZIM process show the carriers are consolidating inland and contract logistics faster than the underlying freight cycle is recovering.