ContainerSignal
freight-ratesdrewryxenetafbxscfiblank-sailingsasia-europecapacity

Asia-Europe spot rates extend their fall as Transpacific gains stall

By Toni Tan · · 9 min read

The two main east-west readings moved the same way again this week: Asia to Europe kept falling, and the transpacific stopped gaining. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft container in the week to 1 October 2026, a second consecutive weekly decline, driven by the Asia-Europe trade. Xeneta’s market averages for 7 October show the same shape, with Far East to North Europe and Far East to the Mediterranean down week on week while both US coasts edged higher.

One note on dates. Drewry’s assessment published on its World Container Index page at the time of writing is dated 1 October, and the Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s latest SCFI reading covers the week to 30 September.

Spot Rates

Index (provider)Trade laneUnitPeriodLevelChange
World Container Index (Drewry)Composite, eight east-west lanesper 40ftWeek to 1 Oct 2026US$4,434-1% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Rotterdamper 40ftWeek to 1 Oct 2026US$3,399-2% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Genoaper 40ftWeek to 1 Oct 2026US$3,702-3% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Los Angelesper 40ftWeek to 1 Oct 2026US$7,835unchanged
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to New Yorkper 40ftWeek to 1 Oct 2026US$10,428+1% week on week
Market average (Xeneta)Far East to North Europeper FEU (40ft)7 Oct 2026US$3,645-2.5% week on week
Market average (Xeneta)Far East to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)7 Oct 2026US$4,007-5.9% week on week
Market average (Xeneta)Far East to US West Coastper FEU (40ft)7 Oct 2026US$8,336+1.1% week on week
Market average (Xeneta)Far East to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)7 Oct 2026US$11,512+0.5% week on week
Market average (Xeneta)North Europe to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)7 Oct 2026US$2,854-1.1% week on week
SCFI composite (Shanghai Shipping Exchange)Shanghai export lanes, all routesindex pointsWeek to 30 Sep 20263,662.30-24.32 points, or -0.66%
FBX composite (Freightos Baltic Index)Globalper 40ftLevel shown on the FBX site; the page states no date for the compositeUS$3,343-1% week on week (reported by Container News, 5 Oct, from US$3,380.40)

On Asia to Europe, Drewry put Shanghai to Rotterdam down 2% at US$3,399 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Genoa down 3% at US$3,702, and said rates on the trade have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks. Xeneta’s 7 October read is consistent in direction: Far East to North Europe at US$3,645 per FEU, down 2.5%, and Far East to the Mediterranean at US$4,007 per FEU, down 5.9%. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand said the Mediterranean is down 43% and North Europe 34% since 1 July, and that the pace of the decline has eased but the trend is still downward.

On the transpacific the two indexes part company on the near term. Drewry had Shanghai to Los Angeles unchanged at US$7,835 per 40ft container and Shanghai to New York up 1% at US$10,428 for the week to 1 October. Xeneta’s 7 October averages were US$8,336 per FEU to the US West Coast, up 1.1% week on week, and US$11,512 per FEU to the US East Coast, up 0.5%. Xeneta also reported that Far East to US West Coast spot rates fell by US$2 on 7 October, which Sand described as the first dip since mid-September. The two sets of figures use different port pairs, weightings and timing, so a small move in one need not appear in the other; our guide to container freight rate indexes explains why an index level only means something with its lane and period attached.

The Chinese benchmarks were mixed. The SCFI composite fell to 3,662.30 points for the week to 30 September from 3,686.62 on 24 September, a drop of 24.32 points or 0.66%. The broader China Containerized Freight Index moved the other way, up about 0.3% to 1,923.93 from 1,917.68, according to Container News, which also reports that no new Ningbo Containerized Freight Index reading was published during China’s National Day holiday period. Container News reported the same week that the FBX declined 1% to US$3,343 from US$3,380.40.

Capacity and Blank Sailings

Capacity is being returned and withheld at the same time.

Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker for 2 October counts 39 blank sailings across the major east-west trades from week 41 (5 to 11 October) to week 45 (2 to 8 November), against 710 planned sailings, a 5% cancellation rate. The cancellations are concentrated on the transpacific eastbound trade at 49%, followed by Asia-North Europe and the Mediterranean at 33% and the transatlantic at 18%. In the WCI commentary Drewry separately counted 10 blank sailings announced for the coming week against 13 in the current week, and five on Asia-Europe against six, which it described as slightly more scheduled capacity.

Running the other way, Suez Canal transits in week 39 were 68% higher than the same week last year, Drewry said, adding effective capacity to the Asia-Europe trade and putting further downward pressure on rates. On schedules, Sea-Intelligence’s press room reports that global schedule reliability fell again in August, with reliability in Asia at 32.3% for the month, the picture carried in the 4 October briefing.

What It Means

The composite fell 1% while the transpacific held or edged up, which says the weakness is concentrated on Asia-Europe rather than spread across the network. The evidence points to two forces at once: effective capacity returning to the trade as more vessels take the Suez route, and demand easing after a very strong year, with Golden Week factory closures removing a week of Chinese cargo. A single week’s print cannot separate how much of the decline is demand and how much is capacity, and neither index attempts to, as our explainer on what a blank sailing removes from a schedule sets out.

Carriers are trying to interrupt the trend. Drewry said lines are introducing higher FAK rates in the second half of October, after the holiday, but called the success of those increases uncertain. Xeneta’s Sand said Far East to Europe rates remain elevated and the trend is still downward, so in his view the market is not at the floor yet. Both are attributed external views and not forecasts of ours. The reading of the divergence between the benchmark and the physical network was set out in last Monday’s analysis of the Asia-Europe decline.

Regulation and Costs

Surcharges sit outside these index levels. Container News reports that Maersk revised its Rhine low water surcharges, a reminder that inland low water, as well as fuel, can land on a shipper’s invoice separately from the headline ocean rate.

On fuel, Ship & Bunker raised its fourth-quarter bunker price outlook by another US$124/mt after the US Energy Information Administration put fourth-quarter Brent above US$100 per barrel. Splash 24/7 reports that bunker prices are up by about three quarters since the Iran war began. Bunker prices feed the BAF element of contracts, which moves on its own schedule rather than with the spot indexes above.

Sources

Related reading

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

ContainerSignal Daily: ONE joins Suez return as rates slide

ONE becomes the latest carrier to resume Suez Canal transits as Asia-Europe spot rates slide and carriers push October FAK increases.

ContainerSignal Daily: Far East-US spot rates reach post-Hormuz peak

Xeneta says Far East to US spot rates have peaked after the Hormuz crisis, as Drewry's index slips again and the Panama Canal adds a transit slot.