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ContainerSignal Daily: Far East-US spot rates reach post-Hormuz peak

By Toni Tan · · 11 min read

Spot rates from the Far East to the United States have reached their post-Hormuz peak, according to Xeneta, even as its 1 October reading edged higher week on week. Drewry’s World Container Index fell again in the same week as China’s Golden Week shut factories, and the Panama Canal Authority moved the other way on capacity by raising the maximum Neopanamax draft and scheduling a further daily transit slot from 15 October.

The two readings point in the same direction. The rate surge that followed the disruption at the Strait of Hormuz is turning, and the chokepoint conditions that helped create it are easing on one route even as congestion keeps absorbing capacity elsewhere.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

Xeneta’s weekly ocean market update puts market average spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast at US$8,346 per FEU (40ft container) on 1 October, up 1.4% (US$115 per FEU) week on week, and Far East to US East Coast at US$11,523 per FEU, up 0.7% (US$78 per FEU). Against the pre-Hormuz baseline of 28 February, those lanes are still 344.2% and 334.7% higher respectively. The east-west spread has widened to US$3,177 per FEU, from about US$772 before the crisis, with the East Coast the more expensive.

The softer side of the same data set is the Asia to Europe trades, which peaked earlier and have been falling since the start of July: Far East to North Europe at US$3,726 per FEU, down 2.1% in the week, and Far East to Mediterranean at US$4,105 per FEU, down 4.6%. North Europe to US East Coast fell 2.2% to US$2,893 per FEU. Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand attributes the turn to Asian port congestion easing as typhoon season winds down, compounded by Golden Week holidays lowering Chinese exports in the first week of October. His projection, which is Xeneta’s rather than ours, is for US East Coast spot rates in the US$6,000 to US$7,000 range and West Coast around US$4,500 to US$5,500 within three months.

Drewry’s World Container Index for the week to 1 October fell 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft container, a second consecutive weekly decline. Shanghai to New York rose 1% to US$10,428 per 40ft container and Shanghai to Los Angeles was stable at US$7,835, while Shanghai to Genoa fell 3% to US$3,702 and Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 2% to US$3,399. Asia-Europe rates have now declined for 12 consecutive weeks. The guide to container freight rate indexes explains how a composite reading relates to the eight individual lanes beneath it.

Capacity management is loosening on both measured trades. Drewry counts 10 blank sailings announced for the coming week, down from 13 this week, and five on Asia-Europe, down from six. It attributes the extra effective capacity to more Suez Canal transits, which in week 39 ran 68% higher than the same week last year, alongside the Golden Week shutdown, and expects rates to fall again next week. Carriers are trying to reverse the trend with higher FAK rates in the second half of October, but Drewry says whether those hold is uncertain. For how withdrawn sailings work as a pricing lever, see what is a blank sailing.

Carrier Updates

COSCO Shipping Lines will take slots on Hapag-Lloyd’s Mediterranean Canada (MCA) service and market the link as the Mediterranean Canada Service, Container News reports, citing DynaLiners. The published MCA rotation runs Salerno, Livorno, Genoa, Marseille, Sagunto, Algeciras, Tangier, Vigo, Saint John, Montreal, Tangier and back to Salerno, and COSCO’s slot agreement excludes the calls at Vigo and Saint John. OOCL, COSCO’s sister carrier, has a parallel arrangement on the same Hapag-Lloyd-operated loop, so both Chinese lines add Mediterranean to Montreal coverage without operating separate tonnage. How carriers share capacity on arrangements like this is set out in what is a shipping alliance.

FESCO has revised its FCDL3 service between China and Vladivostok, Container News reports, removing Wenzhou and moving to an alternating pattern in which two of every three sailings run Shanghai to Vladivostok directly, while the third links Xiamen, Shantou and Ningbo with the Russian port.

Maersk says it has completed the first ship-to-ship commercial ethanol bunkering of a deep-sea container vessel in the United States, which it describes as another step in exploring future fuel pathways for shipping. The announcement is dated 28 September on the carrier’s newsroom; the vessel and the port were not stated in the material available to us.

Ports

Contecon Manzanillo, the Mexican terminal of International Container Terminal Services Inc, has taken delivery of two ship-to-shore cranes in the fourth phase of its expansion, bringing its quay crane fleet to 14, WorldCargo News reports. Manzanillo is Mexico’s main Pacific container gateway and sits on the trans-Pacific and intra-Americas rotations.

Yilport, the Turkish-headquartered terminal operator, will invest EUR 100m in the North Container Terminal at the Port of Leixões in Portugal, WorldCargo News reports. The detail behind the figure sits behind a paywall, so only the headline investment is stated here.

Trade Routes

The Panama Canal Authority will increase Neopanamax daily transits to 10, for a total of 33 daily slots across the Neopanamax and Panamax locks, beginning 15 October 2026, and has raised the maximum authorised draft for the Neopanamax locks to 14.94 metres (49.0 feet), effective immediately and until further notice, according to its advisory to shipping. The authority said the changes reflect close to average rainfall across the watershed and the water saving measures in the locks, while warning that the transit reservation system remains the only way to guarantee a date and that vessels without a booking may face indefinite delays.

The canal is the primary route for trade between Asia and the US Gulf and East Coast, and the water deficit there is one of the constraints behind the widened East Coast to West Coast rate spread reported above. How the Neopanamax draft limit shapes hull design is covered in how container ships are sized. ICIS reported that the US is the canal’s largest user, with 52% of 2024 transits having US ports of origin or destination, and that the authority is also weighing steps for 2027 because the strongest effects of an El Nino tend to show up in the following year.

Insurance costs on contested routes are still climbing. Hellenic Shipping News carries a Platts interview with Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd’s Market Association and chair of its Joint War Committee, who says the committee has expanded its listed areas for heightened operational risk in the Black Sea, the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea this year, bringing more voyages under additional war risk premiums and procedures. Headline additional war risk premium rates for transiting the Strait of Hormuz have risen more than 40-fold as a percentage of hull value since the Iran war began in late February, and coverage periods have shortened, he told Platts. For crude oil shipments from the Black Sea, Platts assessments put the additional war risk premium at US$2 per barrel on 17 July, US$3.7 per barrel on 29 July and US$2.9 per barrel on 30 September. Those figures are for crude cargoes, not containers; container lines face war risk premium on hull and cargo cover for the same waters, a cost they levy back through surcharges on affected routings. The interview cites IMO, national government and security consultancy estimates that more than 100 merchant ships have been attacked this year.

Digital & Standards

The Digital Container Shipping Association has expanded its Track & Trace standard to cover data coming directly from connected containers and reefers, Splash 247 reports. Version 3.0.0 adds IoT events covering container location, geofence crossings and door status, and reefer events covering temperature readings, setpoint changes, power status and alarms, extending the common data model beyond shipment and transport milestones. The association says users of the current 2.2.0 standard will need to migrate, and that the specification is initially available to members and DCSA+ partners, with a broader public release scheduled for the second half of 2027.

What It Means

For shippers, the message from both indexes is that the top of the market is in, but the descent is expected to be gradual rather than a collapse. Xeneta still sees rates well above pre-crisis levels for the rest of 2026, and Drewry expects another weekly decline with carriers testing FAK increases after Golden Week. Contracts negotiated now are being written into a falling but still elevated market, and the East Coast premium over the West Coast is projected to narrow, which matters most for shippers that can switch coast.

On capacity, the picture is mixed. The Panama Canal move adds slots and depth for Asia to US Gulf and East Coast cargo and helps address the constraint behind that coast’s high rates, while congestion elsewhere still absorbs usable capacity and Golden Week blank sailings run through mid-October. The first departures after factories restart carry the rollover risk. War risk premiums on Red Sea and Gulf routings remain a live cost line, and the additional insurance procedures now attached to listed areas mean routing decisions carry an underwriting step as well as a schedule one.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe spot rates extend their fall as Transpacific gains stall

Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft in the week to 1 October, Asia-Europe's twelfth weekly decline, while Transpacific gains slowed.

Container freight rate indexes explained: WCI, FBX, SCFI and more

A reference guide to the main container freight rate indexes: what WCI, FBX, SCFI, NCFI and Xeneta XSI measure, how each is quoted, and how to cite a rate.

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

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