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ContainerSignal Daily: Hapag-Lloyd raises guidance a third time

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 11 min read

Hapag-Lloyd raised its full year earnings outlook for the third time in 2026 on 11 November, citing freight rate strength and a better than expected fourth quarter, and now puts group EBIT at US$2.0 billion to US$2.4 billion against US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion previously. The upgrade lands on a market where the spot indexes have eased for two consecutive weeks and where both major canals are handing capacity back: the Panama Canal added a 34th daily transit slot the same day, and Suez transits continue to build. Carriers are still being paid for the disruption premium while the arithmetic that produced it is unwinding.

Today’s Signals

Carrier Updates

Hapag-Lloyd lifted its 2026 guidance across both measures. The Hamburg carrier now expects group EBIT of US$2.0 billion to US$2.4 billion, up from US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion, and group EBITDA of US$4.6 billion to US$5.0 billion, up from US$3.9 billion to US$4.4 billion, Reuters reported, published through Asharq Al-Awsat’s English edition. The revision follows earlier upgrades in July and September, the latter of which set the US$1.25 billion to US$1.75 billion EBIT range in an ad hoc release on 28 September. The shares rose 2.4% by 0925 GMT. The company’s third quarter report is scheduled for 12 November, so the upgrade arrives one day before the numbers that will show how much of the improvement is already banked.

MeasureGuidance set 28 Sep 2026Guidance set 11 Nov 2026
Group EBITUS$1.25bn to US$1.75bnUS$2.0bn to US$2.4bn
Group EBITDAUS$3.9bn to US$4.4bnUS$4.6bn to US$5.0bn

Maersk confirmed an IT security incident on a legacy system. In an advisory dated 11 November, the carrier said it had identified unauthorised access and data extraction from “one of our local legacy systems from a previous acquisition”, that the incident is isolated to that system, and that it had found no indication of impact on other Maersk systems or on customer and partner systems connected through APIs and electronic data interchange. Maersk said its findings “strongly suggest no sensitive data has been disclosed” and that it does not anticipate disruption to customer operations. A group calling itself WhiteArmor has claimed roughly 100 gigabytes of data from a platform previously operated by LF Logistics, which Maersk acquired in 2022, according to Danish technology publication Ingeniøren as reported by Container News. The volume and the contents of that alleged dataset have not been independently verified, and Maersk has not attributed the incident to WhiteArmor.

Regional Container Lines reported a stronger third quarter and ordered 12 ships. Net profit for the three months to 30 September reached THB 3.26 billion, up 64.7% from THB 1.98 billion in the second quarter, with the average freight rate rising to US$624 per TEU from US$552, Container News reported. Nine month net profit was THB 6.91 billion, up 8.6%, even as liftings fell 232,000 TEU or 11.7%, which the company attributed to port congestion in Asia and Europe lengthening voyages and cutting the number of round trips per ship. The order covers four 1,900 TEU vessels, six of 3,100 TEU and two of 9,200 TEU, a combined 44,600 TEU of nominal capacity, with deliveries from 2028. RCL did not disclose the yards or the value of the orders.

Freight Rates

The gap between announced November increases and assessed spot rates is the story on Asia-Europe. Carriers have filed freight all kinds levels above where the indexes sit: MSC at US$4,500 per 40ft to North Europe and US$5,000 to the Western Mediterranean and Adriatic, and CMA CGM at US$4,900 to the Western Mediterranean, against a Drewry World Container Index assessment for 5 November of US$3,615 per 40ft on Shanghai to Rotterdam and US$4,166 on Shanghai to Genoa. Italian forwarder Sogese, in its November Europe container market update, argues carriers may collect only part of those increases as effective capacity expands with the Suez return, Container News reported. The same report notes a split inside the Mediterranean: between 8 October and 5 November, Shanghai to Genoa rose 12.7% while Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 8.3%.

Capacity management, not disruption, is becoming the pricing mechanism. Sogese chief executive Andrea Monti said the market is moving away from disruption driven pricing towards a period in which carriers’ own capacity decisions matter more. Shorter Suez voyages release ships that the Cape of Good Hope routing had absorbed, and whether that shows up as better fleet efficiency or as extra sailings is a commercial choice rather than a physical constraint. That is the same lever blank sailings pull, and it is the one that will decide whether the November increases stick.

The equipment side follows the same logic. Faster vessel rotations reduce the number of containers needed to move a given volume of cargo, which Sogese says could produce regional equipment surpluses rather than the shortages that defined the past two years. For 2027 contract negotiations the report recommends attention to routing flexibility, surcharge conditions and service performance rather than headline rates alone, which is a reasonable ask in a market where the same carrier is publishing a higher FAK and reporting a lower index in the same week.

Ports

The Panama Canal added a daily transit slot and raised the neopanamax draft. An advisory to shipping added one booking slot for super vessels at the Panamax locks, taking that category from 18 to 19 a day and total capacity to 34 slots, made up of 24 at the Panamax locks and 10 at the neopanamax locks, up from 33. The maximum allowable draft at the neopanamax locks rose to 15.24 metres (50 feet) from 49 feet, effective 9 November and until further notice, Hellenic Shipping News reported, citing the authority’s advisory. Splash247 confirms the same 34 slot total and the 50 foot draft, and places the change against an August low of 32 slots, when weak rainfall and a strengthening El Niño forced cuts and drove a record US$5.3 million auction payment by an LPG carrier for a September transit.

US container imports set an all-time monthly high in October. Descartes Systems Group counted 2,674,808 TEU of US maritime container imports in October, up 5% from September and 16% from October 2025, exceeding the previous monthly record of 2,622,465 TEU set in May 2022 by 52,343 TEU, Container News reported. Imports from China reached 987,805 TEU, up 6.9% on the month and 22.9% on the year, and took a 36.9% share. Houston posted the largest monthly gain among the ten gateways tracked, up 26.7% or 42,665 TEU, while Los Angeles fell 1.4%, Long Beach 2% and Oakland 10.9%, lifting the East and Gulf coast share to 39.9% from 36.7%. Average transit delays across the ten ports rose to 6.3 days from 6.0 in September and 4.2 in June. These are Descartes’ own series, which cover a wider port set than the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates tracker that put October at an estimated 2.26 million TEU, so the two should not be compared directly.

Trade Routes

Hapag-Lloyd will run its own Asia to Mexico loop from January 2027. The AMX service rotation is Ningbo, Qingdao, Busan, Ensenada, Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas and back to Ningbo, operated with Hapag’s own ships of 8,000 to 9,000 TEU, the Loadstar reported. The loop is standalone in name only: it depends on the Gemini hub network Hapag runs with Maersk to balance cargo and relay boxes onward, which is why a carrier that has been buying slots from MSC into Mexico can now fill an owned ship. Read that as network design rather than new capacity, and it is the operating logic that the alliance model is built on.

Gulf container capacity is still a fraction of its pre-conflict level. Xeneta’s 2027 outlook, presented on 5 November, puts weekly container capacity arriving at Jebel Ali at 9,000 TEU, against 423,000 TEU before the Middle East conflict began, and expects carriers to keep alternative regional gateways even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. AD Ports Group’s third quarter numbers point the same way: container throughput at its UAE terminals fell 57% year on year to 751,000 TEU, though it rose more than 30% on the second quarter. The group still reported record quarterly earnings, with revenue up 48% to AED 7.99 billion and EBITDA up 63% to AED 1.97 billion, carried by its maritime, shipping and logistics clusters rather than by boxes at the quay.

What It Means

For carriers, Hapag-Lloyd’s third upgrade is a statement about realised revenue in the fourth quarter, not about the direction of the spot market. The indexes have fallen two weeks running, Suez is returning ships and Panama has been easing restrictions since its August low. Once both canals are running nearer normal, the only thing holding rates at current levels is how many ships carriers choose not to sail, which is why the surplus arriving in two waves matters more to 2027 contracts than any single weekly index print.

For shippers, the practical window is narrowing but it is still open on the Atlantic and Mediterranean, where announced FAK levels sit well above assessed spot. The negotiation that matters is the one that separates base ocean rate from the surcharge stack and writes in routing flexibility, because a Suez return can change a transit time and a terminal call faster than it changes a contract.

For ports, the two canal stories point in opposite directions. Panama easing helps Asia to US East Coast routings just as US imports set a record and transit delays lengthened to 6.3 days, which suggests the constraint on the American landside is shifting from water to rail and yard capacity. On the Gulf, the Jebel Ali figures show how much capacity a conflict can remove from a single gateway, and how quickly the surrounding ports inherit the cargo.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

The container surplus comes in two waves. Only one can be undone

Routing capacity returns in weeks and can be reversed, while the orderbook returns in years and cannot. That split separates the 2027 and 2030 rate outlooks.

World Container Index edges down 1% as capacity builds

Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to US$4,389 per 40ft in the week to 5 November, a second decline, with Shanghai to Rotterdam down 2% and fuel 20% cheaper.

World Container Index falls 3% as transpacific rates slide

Drewry's composite fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40ft as transpacific spot rates dropped, while Asia-Europe held and carriers pushed US$3,000 November increases.

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ContainerSignal Daily: Rates slip again, carriers push increases

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