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Asia-Europe rates fall a thirteenth week as transpacific eases

By Toni Tan · · 12 min read

The two main east-west readings fell together in the latest week, and they fell for different reasons. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% to US$4,351 per 40ft container in its assessment dated 8 October 2026, driven by declines on both the transpacific and the Asia-Europe trade after China’s Golden Week. Freightos’ weekly update, published on 13 October, shows the same direction from a different dataset: Asia to the US West Coast down 2% to US$8,149 per FEU, Asia to North Europe unchanged at US$3,260 per FEU, and Asia to the Mediterranean up 7% to US$3,804 per FEU as carriers tried to lift rates into the 2027 contract season.

One note on dates, because it matters for reading the table below. Drewry’s latest published assessment is dated 8 October and the index page had not yet carried a 15 October assessment when this update was written. The Freightos lane values are from the weekly update published on 13 October covering the previous week. The Chinese indexes are the readings Container News reported on 12 October.

Spot Rates

Index (provider)Trade laneUnitPeriodLevelChange
World Container Index (Drewry)Composite, eight east-west lanesper 40ftWeek to 8 Oct 2026US$4,351-2% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Rotterdamper 40ftWeek to 8 Oct 2026US$3,337-2% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Genoaper 40ftWeek to 8 Oct 2026US$3,696unchanged
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Los Angelesper 40ftWeek to 8 Oct 2026US$7,624-3% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to New Yorkper 40ftWeek to 8 Oct 2026US$10,220-2% week on week
FBX01 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North America West Coastper FEU (40ft)Week reported 13 Oct 2026US$8,149-2% week on week
FBX03 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North America East Coastper FEU (40ft)Week reported 13 Oct 2026US$9,606unchanged
FBX11 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North Europeper FEU (40ft)Week reported 13 Oct 2026US$3,260unchanged
FBX13 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)Week reported 13 Oct 2026US$3,804+7% week on week
FBX composite (Freightos Baltic Index)Globalper 40ftLatest reading, as reported 12 Oct 2026US$3,344unchanged from US$3,343
SCFI composite (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, via Container News)Shanghai export lanes, all routesindex pointsReading reported 12 Oct 20263,664.11+0.05% (from 3,662.30)
CCFI (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, via Container News)China export lanes, all routesindex pointsReading reported 12 Oct 20261,912.38-0.6% (from 1,923.93)
NCFI (Ningbo Containerized Freight Index, via Container News)Ningbo export lanes, all routesindex pointsReading reported 12 Oct 20262,431.78about -1.5% (from 2,468.61)
NYFI (NYSHEX Freight Index, via Container News)Asia to US West Coastindex level as published9 Oct 20267,407.75-1.98%
NYFI (NYSHEX Freight Index, via Container News)Asia to US East Coastindex level as published9 Oct 20269,831.24+1.40%
NYFI (NYSHEX Freight Index, via Container News)Asia to North Europeindex level as published9 Oct 20263,356.23-3.24%
NYFI (NYSHEX Freight Index, via Container News)Transatlantic westboundindex level as published9 Oct 20262,709.05-0.52%
NYFI (NYSHEX Freight Index, via Container News)Transatlantic eastboundindex level as published9 Oct 20261,282.09+8.23%

Asia to Europe is the one direction almost every provider agrees on. Drewry put Shanghai to Rotterdam 2% lower at US$3,337 per 40ft and Shanghai to Genoa unchanged at US$3,696, and said rates on the trade have now declined for 13 consecutive weeks. The NYSHEX Freight Index points the same way, with Asia to North Europe down 3.24% at 3,356.23 in its 9 October reading. Freightos’ FBX11 for Asia to North Europe was the exception, unchanged week on week at US$3,260 per FEU, which is exactly the sort of divergence our explainer on container freight rate indexes describes: different port pairs, different samples and different timing mean a flat reading in one need not appear in the other.

The transpacific is where the readings split on direction. Drewry recorded declines on both coasts, Shanghai to Los Angeles 3% lower at US$7,624 and Shanghai to New York down 2% at US$10,220. NYSHEX had the West Coast down 1.98% at 7,407.75 and the East Coast up 1.40% at 9,831.24. Freightos had the West Coast down 2% at US$8,149 per FEU and the East Coast unchanged at US$9,606 per FEU. Three providers, all showing a softening West Coast, and no agreement yet on whether the East Coast is following.

At composite level the picture is no cleaner. Drewry’s WCI composite fell 2%, the CCFI fell 0.6% and the NCFI fell about 1.5%, while the SCFI edged up 0.05% to 3,664.11 points and the FBX composite was flat at US$3,344. The SCFI table itself is not fetchable from this host, so those Shanghai Shipping Exchange values are taken from the reading Container News reported on 12 October, naming the exchange as the source.

The composite has now fallen two weeks running: US$4,434 per 40ft for the week to 1 October, then US$4,351 for the week to 8 October, as last week’s market update recorded. The counter-movement sits on the Mediterranean, where Freightos shows a 7% weekly rise on carriers’ rate increase attempts.

Capacity and Blank Sailings

Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker, dated 9 October, counts 34 blank sailings across the major east-west trades from week 42 (12 to 18 October) to week 46 (9 to 15 November), against 713 planned sailings. That is a 5% cancellation rate, with 95% of scheduled sailings expected to operate. The cancellations are concentrated on Asia-North Europe and the Mediterranean at 50%, followed by the transpacific eastbound at 32% and the transatlantic at 18%. In its separate WCI commentary Drewry counted four blank sailings announced for the transpacific in the coming week, down from eleven in the week of the assessment, and six on Asia-Europe, up from five.

Carriers are still adjusting individual loops. MSC will blank two consecutive Britannia sailings on Asia-North Europe, voyage QB645W in week 45 and voyage QB646W in week 46, Container News reported on 15 October.

The larger capacity question this month is routing rather than cancellations. Drewry said the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route remains the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates. Freightos made the same point from the schedule side, noting that carriers have gradually increased Asia-Europe Red Sea transits since June, which shortens voyages and adds effective capacity to the trade. That is the mirror image of what a blank sailing removes from a schedule: one mechanism takes capacity out, the other puts it back.

On network structure, Sea-Intelligence published a note on 15 October finding that the average number of carriers marketing a given physical deep-sea service fell from 4.12 between 2014 and 2016 to 2.65 by August 2026, while the number of active deep-sea services expanded from roughly 250 in 2012 and 2013 to nearly 380 by late 2026. The publisher attributes the shift to lines carrying more operational risk individually instead of pooling capacity through vessel-sharing agreements, and attributes all quotes to Alan Murphy, its chief executive.

What It Means

The evidence supports two readings at once, and the indexes cannot separate them. Weakness is concentrated on Asia-Europe, where rates have now fallen for 13 consecutive weeks, while the transpacific has held near peak-season levels since July before this week’s West Coast dip. Drewry identifies returning Suez capacity as the main threat to carrier rate support. Freightos identifies the post-peak demand slide as the bigger factor behind the Asia-Europe decline, and points to the National Retail Federation’s projection that US import volumes fall 11% month on month in November as evidence that the US peak is ending. Both are attributed external views, and they are not mutually exclusive: capacity and demand can move the same way at the same time.

The live event is contract season. Freightos reports that carriers are entering 2027 annual negotiations on Asia-Europe rates still roughly 70% above October 2025 levels, with both main Asia-Europe lanes above US$3,000 per FEU, while some shippers are holding back from committing because they expect newbuild deliveries and further Red Sea returns to add capacity next year. That is Freightos’ description of shipper behaviour, not a forecast of ours. How the network stayed tight through the current decline is the subject of the 5 October analysis.

The main upside risk named by Freightos is geopolitical: sustained attacks on shipping in the Red Sea would tighten effective capacity and complicate carriers’ attempts to defend rate levels. Container tonnage has already been lost in the Strait of Hormuz this week, which is covered in the daily briefings.

Regulation and Costs

Surcharges and regulation sit outside these index levels and move on their own timetable.

Hapag-Lloyd will raise rates by US$1,000 per standard container on shipments from the East Coast of South America to South America West Coast on its CON service, to North America, Central America and the Caribbean on GS1, and to the North American East Coast on SEC. The increase takes effect on 15 November 2026 and remains valid until further notice, Container News reported on 15 October.

The Suez Canal Authority has introduced mandatory inspections and trials for vessels aged 25 years and older before they are granted permission to transit, with fees payable in advance, Splash 24/7 reported on 15 October, citing instructions circulated to shipping agents this week. Vessels inspected within the previous six months are exempt provided no defects or breakdowns were recorded. The authority has not specified the fees or the length of the process. Splash also cites Clarksons Research, which reported that more than 150m gt of shipping is now aged 25 years or older, up 75% in five years, and a record 68m gt past 30 years.

On fuel, Ship & Bunker’s bunker price pages show VLSFO at US$917.00 per tonne in Singapore, up US$10.00, and US$742.00 per tonne in Rotterdam, up US$5.50, with Brent at US$106.12 per barrel on its 14 October oil price table. Bunker prices feed the BAF element of a contract, which resets on its own schedule rather than with the spot indexes above.

Sources

Related reading

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