ContainerSignal Daily: Rates rebound 3% as Asia-Europe slide ends

Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft container in its assessment dated 15 October 2026, ending 13 consecutive weekly declines on the Asia-Europe trade as Chinese cargo flows resumed after Golden Week. The rise is a price event, not yet a capacity event: carriers are seeking freight all kinds (FAK) rates of US$4,500 to US$4,800 per 40ft on Asia-Europe from 19 October, and Drewry says successful implementation remains uncertain while resumed Suez Canal transits and fewer blank sailings add effective capacity to the route. The same week brought a US$1.617bn containership order from HMM’s board, a monthly volume record at the Port of Long Beach, and two new verified developments in the Red Sea security picture.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft container in its assessment for 15 October, up from US$4,351 in the week to 8 October. Asia-Europe drove the move. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 6%, or US$185, to US$3,522 per 40ft, and Shanghai to Genoa rose 7%, or US$249, to US$3,945, the first weekly increase on the trade after 13 straight declines. On the transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 3%, or US$260, to US$7,884, while Shanghai to New York eased 1%, or US$145, to US$10,075. Drewry described the east-west market as rebounding after Golden Week as cargo flows resumed from China.

Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index (IACI) moved the other way, easing 3% to US$1,453 per 40ft.

Index (provider)	Trade lane	Unit	Period	Level	Change
World Container Index (Drewry)	Composite, eight east-west lanes	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$4,485	+3% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Rotterdam	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$3,522	+6% (+US$185)
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Genoa	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$3,945	+7% (+US$249)
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Los Angeles	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$7,884	+3% (+US$260)
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to New York	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$10,075	-1% (-US$145)
Intra-Asia Container Index (Drewry)	Intra-Asia composite	per 40ft	Assessment of 15 Oct 2026	US$1,453	-3% week on week

Drewry renders its index tables in the page with JavaScript, so the lane values above are not in the HTML source; they are published by Drewry for the 15 October assessment and reported by Daily Cargo News, with provider and period attached, which is the only way a lane figure carries meaning. That is the point our explainer on container freight rate indexes sets out: different providers sample different port pairs and periods, so a reading belongs to the provider that published it.

The capacity side is what Drewry flags as the risk to the rebound. Its Container Capacity Insight counts two blank sailings announced for next week on Asia-Europe, down from six this week, and six on the transpacific, unchanged, which Drewry reads as stable capacity. Carriers are pushing for FAK rates of US$4,500 to US$4,800 per 40ft on Asia-Europe from 19 October, but Drewry says implementation is uncertain given the extra capacity and expects rates to stay stable next week. A blank sailing is a scheduled departure a carrier removes from a trade, the mechanism our explainer on blank sailings describes.

Fleet & Capacity

HMM’s board approved an investment of US$1,617,156,000 in 12 containerships on 15 October, comprising eight 13,000 TEU newbuildings and four smaller ships acquired as resales of newbuildings already under construction, three of 2,800 TEU and one of 1,700 TEU. The combined capacity is 114,100 TEU, and the investment period runs to 31 December 2029, which reflects expected final deliveries in December 2029, though HMM said that could shift with the delivery schedule. The amount equals 8.16% of the company’s consolidated equity. HMM has not identified the shipyards for the eight larger vessels or the sellers of the four smaller ones, and propulsion specifications were not disclosed, as Splash 24/7 reported.

HMM operated 97 containerships with about 1.02 million TEU of capacity in the first half of 2026, and a strategy approved on 24 July targets 166 containerships and 1.47 million TEU by the end of 2030, part of a KRW29trn (US$22bn) investment programme, according to Baird Maritime. Orders on this scale matter for the 2027 contract round because they add to the delivery pipeline that shippers cite when they hold back from committing. The gap between capacity on order, nominal capacity and capacity actually deployed is the subject of our guide to how container ships are sized.

Carrier Updates

CMA CGM signed a framework agreement with ENGIE to develop a biomethane production facility in the industrial and port area of Le Havre. Subject to a final investment decision, the plant is expected to begin supplying the group’s fleet in 2029 to 2030 with 7,000 tonnes of biomethane a year, equivalent to 100GWh, converted from livestock waste, household biowaste and agricultural residues. CMA CGM says the fuel would avoid about 23,000 tonnes of CO2 a year and cut lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by at least 67% against conventional marine fuels, and that LNG-powered vessels can use it without changes to engines or bunkering infrastructure. ENGIE will lead development, permitting, construction and operation, with CMA CGM taking a minority stake through its PULSE energy fund. The facility is also expected to produce 100,000 tonnes of digestate a year for fertiliser.

Separately, CMA CGM signed a memorandum of understanding with Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority and Singapore LNG Corporation to explore supply, certification and use of liquefied biomethane as a marine fuel in Singapore, including pilot projects and operational trials. The group targets net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and expects more than 200 dual-fuel vessels capable of using biomethane, biomethanol and e-fuels to join its fleet by 2030.

The Journal of Commerce reports that ONE added an extra loader vessel to ease space constraints on India to US East Coast cargo after ending its WIN loop, with forwarders putting the extra loader’s allocation at about 1,000 TEU for India loading.

Ports

The Port of Long Beach moved 997,177 TEU in September, up 25% on September 2025 and above its previous monthly record of 987,191 TEU set in October 2024. Imports rose 31.3% to 509,390 TEU, exports 7.8% to 91,747 TEU and empties 22.1% to 396,040 TEU. Year to date the port has handled 7,675,255 TEU, up 3.9% on the same period last year. Chief Executive Noel Hacegaba presented the figures at the port’s monthly supply chain briefing and attributed the surge to shippers adjusting supply chains against high diesel costs, restricted Panama Canal access and the prospect of tariffs, with neighbouring Los Angeles also posting its busiest month. Terminal operator Total Terminals International set a Long Beach monthly rail record in September with 59,410 moves.

Rotterdam handled 10.751 million TEU in the first nine months of 2026, up 0.1%, with container tonnage down 2.2%, while total port throughput rose 0.9% to 323.2 million tonnes. Hinterland volumes rose 7.2%, driven by an 8.9% increase in imports of full containers, but transhipment fell 20%, which the port attributed to long-standing capacity constraints at its deep-sea terminals and to more cargo being handled through other ports. The number of empty containers moved continued to rise as imports outgrew exports.

At India’s Deendayal Port (Kandla), around 70 vessels were awaiting berths, with some waits of 20 to 25 days, as rice exporters switched from containers to conventional vessels. Chairman Sushil Kumar Singh said higher container freight rates to the Middle East had encouraged the change. The authority is considering loading bagged rice over an oil jetty and using barges at mooring points, and has submitted a proposal for six kilometres of waterfront development outside Kandla Creek in four phases at an estimated ₹47,000 crore, with the first phase estimated at ₹6,400 crore for a trestle and berth under an engineering, procurement and construction model. The proposal sits with the shipping ministry and is planned development rather than an approved construction programme.

A.P. Moller Capital said on 15 October that it had signed an agreement, through its Emerging Markets Infrastructure Fund II, to acquire 100% of Singapore-based port operator and engineering business Portek International from Mitsui & Co. Portek operates facilities in Africa, Asia and Europe, TradeWinds reported. Completion is subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory and third party approvals.

Trade Routes

The Red Sea picture produced two new verified items on 15 October. Le Monde reported that the French frigate Languedoc used its gun to shoot down a drone it deemed threatening to the CMA CGM Champs Elysées at Bab el-Mandeb on the night of 1 October, an account the newspaper said was confirmed by the French armed forces general staff and which The Maritime Executive carried. The vessel is a 23,112 TEU LNG-fuelled ship of 400 metres, shown on CMA CGM’s published schedule as transiting the Suez Canal on 3 October and due at Le Havre on 16 October. Le Monde reported that crews have raised concerns about the transit and that the line has agreed to pay a €1,500 war bonus to seafarers who agree to sail through the Red Sea.

In the Strait of Hormuz, the Joint Maritime Information Center kept its threat assessment at SEVERE in its 15 October advisory, documenting eight projectile attacks on 11 and 13 October involving four tankers and four containerships, and warning that deliberate hostile action against commercial vessels remains highly likely. It also reported an attack on the products tanker Petro Dolphin near Sohar, Oman that left two crew members missing. JMIC counts 149 confirmed vessel incidents in the region since 1 March and reported US-facilitated traffic of 121 vessel transits between 11 and 14 October, an average of about 30 ships a day against a historical average of about 138 a day in 2025, with its separate commercial tracking showing single-digit daily movements. The IMO lists 113 confirmed incidents and 24 seafarer fatalities as of 14 October, on a different methodology, so the two totals are not directly comparable. US Central Command said the United States and regional partners control the strait, citing more than 40 commercial ships transiting in a 24 hour period, and rejected an IRGC claim that GFS Pride had struck a mine. Reuters reported, citing IMO casualty data, that the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged bulk carrier Cape Dao sank near the strait weeks after being struck by a projectile on 23 September, with one crew member killed. Maritime risk firm MARISKS noted that the threat is not confined to tankers, with container vessels and bulk carriers also sustaining serious damage.

Samudera Shipping introduced a weekly CIX 8 service linking Nhava Sheva and Mundra with Qingdao via Colombo, with an estimated transit time of about 23 days from Nhava Sheva to Qingdao. India Shipping News reported the schedule, attributing it to industry reports, so the sailing detail should be confirmed against the carrier’s own published rotation.

Regulation & Policy

The British Ports Association published analysis challenging claims that the EU Emissions Trading System is diverting container shipping from continental Europe to Britain, after proposed EU measures targeting UK container ports over alleged carbon leakage. The association said UK container volumes grew strongly in 2025 with about 85% of the increase concentrated in London after a £350m berth opened at London Gateway in late 2024, and that Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges and Hamburg also recorded growth, so British gains were not necessarily at continental expense. It is urging the UK government and the European Commission to reconsider the available data before measures are introduced. How carbon pricing lands on voyage costs is the subject of our guide to the EU Emissions Trading System for shipping.

Container News reported that China P&I has applied to join the International Group of P&I Clubs, the pool that provides liability cover for the large majority of the world’s ocean-going tonnage, presenting its application in London and moving from its current status as a reinsured association. The group’s admission process runs on the P&I renewal cycle, so any change would take effect with the 2027 policy year at the earliest.

What It Means

The rebound should be read as a floor test rather than a turn in the market. One week of post-holiday cargo resumption lifted rates on Asia-Europe, but the two forces that produced the 13-week decline are still in place: services returning to the shorter Suez Canal routing, which adds effective capacity without any new ship being delivered, and a thinner blank sailing programme. Whether the announced FAK rates of US$4,500 to US$4,800 per 40ft take hold from 19 October is the real question, and Drewry’s own expectation is that rates stay flat next week rather than continue rising.

The supply pipeline and the physical network are pulling in opposite directions. HMM’s 114,100 TEU order adds to deliveries running to the end of the decade, which is the argument shippers are already using to resist long contract commitments for 2027. At the same time the ports data shows where capacity is being absorbed rather than delivered: Long Beach set a monthly record partly because Panama Canal access is restricted, Rotterdam’s transhipment fell a fifth on terminal capacity constraints, and empties are building at both ends. Kandla shows the feedback loop most clearly, with high container rates to the Middle East pushing bagged rice out of containers and into break-bulk, so congestion and cost distort which cargo moves in a box at all.

The security file remains the main swing factor. The Suez return is the single largest source of extra effective capacity on Asia-Europe, and it depends on carriers accepting a risk that CMA CGM, which never fully left the route, is currently running with naval escort and a war bonus for crews. A French frigate shooting down a drone and a contested account of how GFS Pride sank are both reminders that the risk premium sits in insurance and crew availability as much as in freight rates. If Red Sea risk slows the Suez return, the pressure that has held Asia-Europe rates down for three months eases with it.

Sources

• Drewry World Container Index, assessment for 15 October 2026
• Daily Cargo News, “World Container Index, 15 October 2026”, published 16 October 2026
• Splash 24/7, “HMM commits $1.6bn to 12 more containerships”, 16 October 2026
• Baird Maritime, “HMM approves $1.6b investment in new ships”, 15 October 2026
• WorldCargo News, “Long Beach sets monthly record as cargo volumes surge 25%” and Port of Long Beach news
• WorldCargo News, “Rotterdam TEU throughput remains flat in first nine months”
• Maritime Gateway, “Deendayal Port Congestion Prompts Rice-Loading Plan and Waterfront Expansion Proposal”
• WorldCargo News, “CMA CGM advances biomethane plans in France and Singapore”
• Journal of Commerce, “ONE adds extra-loader to ease India-USEC space woes after ending WIN loop”
• TradeWinds, “AP Moller Capital buys ports terminal operator from Mitsui”, 15 October 2026
• The Maritime Executive, on the Le Monde report of a French frigate downing a drone near the CMA CGM Champs Elysées, 15 October 2026
• gCaptain, “U.S. Claims Control of Hormuz as Ship Attacks Hit New High”, citing the JMIC advisory of 15 October 2026
• gCaptain and Reuters, “Bulk Carrier Sinks Weeks After Deadly Strait of Hormuz Strike”, 14 October 2026
• Port Strategy, “UK ports challenge EU carbon leakage claims”
• Container News, “China wants a seat at the table that decides which ships can sail”
• India Shipping News, “Samudera Shipping introduces CIX 8 Service”