Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Two numbers published five days apart describe the same trade and appear to contradict each other. On 21 October, a routing survey by Alphaliner put 63% of the capacity deployed between the Far East and Europe on services whose ships transit the Red Sea. On 22 October, Drewry reported that Asia to Europe spot rates rose for a second consecutive week and that its composite reached a 15 week high.

If most of the capacity is back on the short route, rates should be falling. The resolution is that the return is only half complete in the way that matters for vessel productivity: capacity counted as “on” a Red Sea service is not capacity that has banked a full round voyage saving. That gap is what carriers are pricing, and it has a closing date.

What happened

Alphaliner surveyed the routings of the ten largest carriers on Far East to Europe between 15 September and 15 October 2026. Red Sea routed services accounted for 5.50 million TEU of the 8.70 million TEU deployed, or 63%, across 24 of 46 direct services, with a higher share on the Mediterranean than on North Europe. The analysis is summarised by SAFETY4SEA.

Alphaliner added a caveat that matters more than the headline: “some loops sail through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait westbound but still return to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope.” A loop out through Suez and back around Africa still allocates close to a full Cape round voyage of vessel time, so it recovers part of the distance saving, not all of it.

Drewry’s World Container Index for 22 October rose 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container, which it described as the highest in 15 weeks. Shanghai to Rotterdam gained 3% to US$3,632 per 40ft and Shanghai to Genoa 5% to US$4,152. Xeneta put Far East to North Europe at US$3,698 per FEU for 23 October, up 6.8% week on week, and Far East to the Mediterranean at US$4,442, up 5.8%.

The rise came with a capacity decision rather than a demand surprise. According to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight, cited by The Loadstar, eight blank sailings were announced on Asia to Europe for the following week, up from two, while the transpacific count fell to two from six. MSC posted freight all kinds rates for 1 November of US$4,500 per 40ft to North Europe, US$5,000 to the west Mediterranean and US$5,100 to the east Mediterranean; CMA CGM posted US$4,900 and US$5,200 to the two Mediterranean ranges. The Loadstar noted that MSC’s North Europe number is unchanged from mid-October, and reported Linerlytica’s view that actual spot rates remain below the SCFI assessment and that the November increases will probably fail.

Routing is nonetheless moving in one direction. After talks with Maersk executives, the Suez Canal Authority said the carrier expects all its services to return to the canal by March 2027, an expectation rather than a published schedule, Maritime Gateway reported. The authority counted 276 transits by vessels affiliated with Maersk in January to September 2026, against 146 a year earlier.

The data

Index (provider)	Trade lane	Unit	Period	Level	Change
World Container Index (Drewry)	Composite, eight east-west lanes	per 40ft	22 Oct 2026	US$4,585	+2% week on week, 15 week high
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Rotterdam	per 40ft	22 Oct 2026	US$3,632	+3% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Genoa	per 40ft	22 Oct 2026	US$4,152	+5% week on week
World Container Index (Drewry)	Shanghai to Los Angeles	per 40ft	22 Oct 2026	US$8,007	+2% week on week
Market average spot (Xeneta)	Far East to North Europe	per FEU	23 Oct 2026	US$3,698	+6.8% week on week
Market average spot (Xeneta)	Far East to Mediterranean	per FEU	23 Oct 2026	US$4,442	+5.8% week on week

MSC’s North Europe FAK of US$4,500 per 40ft sits US$868, or 23.9%, above Drewry’s Shanghai to Rotterdam assessment, an imperfect comparison of a port range posting against a single port pair. The Loadstar reported forwarders receiving discounted offers against FAK levels in the first half of October.

Measure	Value	Period	Source
Far East to Europe capacity on Red Sea routed services	5.50m TEU of 8.70m TEU, 63% (70% Med, 58% North Europe)	15 Sep to 15 Oct 2026	Alphaliner
Blank sailings, Asia to Europe	8 next week, up from 2	Week of 22 Oct 2026	Drewry Container Capacity Insight
Blank sailings, transpacific	2 next week, down from 6	Week of 22 Oct 2026	Drewry Container Capacity Insight
Global fleet and orderbook	about 34m TEU, orderbook 15.5m TEU, about 45% of fleet	October 2026	Drewry Container Forecaster
Net fleet growth	about 9% in 2027, then 12.1% in 2028	Forecast	Drewry Container Forecaster
Capacity released by full Suez return	about 1.6m TEU in 2027, plus 1.3m TEU of deliveries	Forecast	Drewry Container Forecaster

The forecast figures come from Drewry’s Container Forecaster presentation of 26 October, as reported by Breakbulk.News, which puts throughput growth at 3.1% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027 and projects about 70 blank sailings across the major east-west trades in October falling to 50 in November.

What the evidence suggests

The October turn is better explained by network geometry than by demand. That is interpretation, and it rests on three observations.

First, a half reverted loop does not deliver a full capacity saving. A service that transits Suez westbound and returns via the Cape spends close to the same vessel days as a full Cape loop, so the 63% overstates how much effective capacity has been released. The count of ships on the Red Sea route can rise while effective supply rises much less, which is how an index can rise while capacity is reported as returning.

Second, the instruments used this month are the ones available when capacity is short of the price rather than short of the cargo. Blanks on Asia to Europe doubled in a week while transpacific blanks fell by two thirds: capacity shifted between trades, not capacity in shortage overall. Posted FAK levels stand above index assessments, and one carrier repeated its North Europe number from two weeks earlier. The mechanics are set out in the blank sailing explainer, and the measurement question in the freight rate indexes guide.

Third, the wedge closes on a calendar. Drewry expects Suez traffic to reach about 80% of its pre-diversion level by February 2027, and Maersk’s stated expectation is a full return by March 2027. Each loop that converts to two way routing releases vessel time, which is why Drewry models the full return as adding about 1.6 million TEU of effective capacity in 2027. This is a variant of the argument I made for the transpacific in the capacity decision piece: there, deployment explained the premium, while here the support is withheld capacity rather than deployed capacity, which makes it weaker and more reversible.

The counter-case

The strongest objection is that no wedge exists and the market is simply tight. Demand on the European fronthaul is genuinely strong: Xeneta reports volumes shipped from the Far East to Europe up 12.2% in the first seven months of 2026, against a fleet that grew more slowly. At that rate, blanked slots get absorbed by cargo and posted increases clear near the posted level.

Port disruption is still absorbing capacity. HHLA cut its 2026 earnings outlook on 22 October, citing weaker than expected Hamburg throughput, strike disruption and an automation ramp up, Port Strategy reported. In Manila, a customs official said congestion could take months to clear, with import dwell at eight days against an ideal of five to six, PortCalls reported. Security could also postpone the reversion: if Red Sea risk persists, one way routing becomes the steady state rather than a transition.

The weakness in the counter-case is timing. Congestion at Asian ports is easing, not worsening: Drewry recorded vessel waiting times at Shanghai falling from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42. If they keep falling while Suez transits rise, the capacity the wedge assumes is being withheld is returning anyway.

What to watch

• The World Container Index print for 29 October, and whether the November FAK levels appear in assessments by mid-November. A third consecutive weekly gain would be the first since July, and Shanghai to Rotterdam holding above US$3,632 would show posted increases finding support. Linerlytica expects them to fail, which is checkable against prints.
• Drewry’s blank sailings count for November, projected to fall to about 50 from about 70 in October. Rates holding through that would mean demand is doing the work.
• The next Alphaliner routing survey, specifically how many Red Sea loops transit in both directions rather than the share of capacity nominally on them. Conversion of one way loops to two way is when the 1.6 million TEU starts to arrive.
• Weekly Suez transits, 54 in week 41 and 55 in week 42, and Maersk’s service level notices. The March 2027 date is an expectation, and individual service dates remain unannounced.

Drewry’s attributed view is that contract rates decline further in 2027 as capacity and lower bunker costs increase competitive pressure, and that congestion, slow steaming, demolitions and idling will not prevent oversupply. Sea-Intelligence, reading the IMF’s October 2026 outlook, reaches the same conclusion from the demand side, with trade volume growth moderating to 4.7% in 2027 from 5.0% in 2025. Neither is my forecast: the rates printed now and the capacity counted for 2027 belong to different markets.