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ContainerSignal Daily: ONE lifts profit forecast to $2 billion

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 11 min read

Ocean Network Express raised its full-year net profit forecast from US$900m to US$2,000m on 4 November, after a second fiscal quarter in which net profit rose to US$1,318m from US$285m a year earlier. Revenue in the quarter to 30 September was US$6,274m against US$4,455m, and the carrier lifted 3.396m TEU at an average freight rate of US$1,709 per TEU, against US$1,252 a year earlier, ONE reported.

It is the second upgrade of ONE’s fiscal year, following a move from US$300m to US$900m after the first quarter, and it follows Maersk’s own guidance increase this week. The forecast also embeds the slowdown that carriers now expect: ONE’s own numbers imply US$652m of profit in the second half, against US$1,348m in the first, with spot rates assumed to ease seasonally but to stay above the levels in the previous plan.

ONE measure (US$m unless stated)Q2 FY2026Q2 FY2025FY2026 forecastPrevious forecast
Revenue6,2744,45521,00019,400
EBITDA1,9888814,7003,600
EBIT1,3582822,2001,100
Net profit1,3182852,000900

The average rate is a portfolio figure across all of ONE’s trades, covering contract and spot cargo together, so it is not comparable with a single lane index. What it does show is the shape of the quarter: liftings up 6.3% year on year, revenue up 41%, and a bunker price of US$749 per tonne against US$518, with the increase attributed in part to the Middle East conflict.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

Container Trade Statistics puts September liftings at 17.35m TEU, up 8% year on year. Monthly volumes fell 1.4% from August, which CTS said was the highest month in its database, and third-quarter volumes reached 52.2m TEU, 2.4% above the second quarter. North American imports rose 9% in the quarter, accelerating from 7% growth in the second quarter, with cargo from Asia and Europe behind the gain, FreightWaves reported, citing CTS. Every region recorded higher imports than a year earlier, while exports fell 7% from the Indian subcontinent and Middle East and 1% from North America.

The pricing measure in the same dataset rose faster than volumes. The CTS Global Price Index reached 123 points in September, 5.1% above August and 62% above September 2025, which CTS linked to route disruption, constrained capacity and higher operating costs rather than to demand alone.

Asia to North Europe is being discounted below the November increases. Linerlytica reported carriers offering rates between US$2,700 and US$3,400 per 40ft on the trade this week, after the FAK increases introduced on 1 November failed to hold at the roughly US$4,500 per 40ft that carriers had targeted, The Loadstar reported. A further attempt at similar levels is scheduled for 15 November, and European forwarders told the publication that modest demand and ample capacity are likely to work against it. Drewry’s assessment for 5 November, covered in this week’s market update, put the composite at US$4,389 per 40ft, down 1%, with Shanghai to Rotterdam at US$3,615.

Carrier Updates

Maersk withdrew its Heavy Load Surcharge on northwest India to Europe contract cargo. The surcharge becomes zero for eligible 20ft dry containers from Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Pipavav and Hazira to North Europe and the Mediterranean, effective 7 November, for boxes with a verified gross mass above 22 tonnes, Maritime Gateway reported. The verified gross mass is the declared weight of the packed container, required under the SOLAS weight verification rule. The advisory, issued on 6 November, applies to contract bookings only; local charges, contingency charges and other surcharges remain payable, so this changes one tariff component rather than the all-in freight rate.

Ports

Los Angeles and Long Beach watchmen have a contract until 20 November. The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 agreed on 6 November to extend their contract through 20 November, with further talks scheduled in the period, deferring a walkout that had been set for the night of 6 November, the employers’ association said. Local 26 represents about 250 watchmen who perform security duties at marine terminals; the association has warned that other ILWU members, including longshore workers and marine clerks covered by separate agreements, would be expected to honour picket lines. The affected facilities handle roughly 85% of Long Beach container cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo. These talks are separate from the coastwide longshore agreement covering about 22,000 workers at 29 ports, which runs through 2028.

The exposure is not limited to security posts. A stoppage by that local would reach vessel, yard and gate operations at the affected terminals, not just the security function, which is what turns a dispute over 250 jobs into a cargo-handling risk.

Trade Routes

PIL is moving its intra-Red Sea hub from Djibouti to Jeddah. The weekly IR5 service, which links Saudi Arabia with Sudan and Yemen, will rotate Jeddah, Port Sudan, Aden and back to Jeddah with two ships of 1,100 to 1,800 TEU, Container News reported, citing DynaLiners. The change removes Djibouti from the sequence and concentrates the relay at Jeddah, which is the pattern transshipment depends on: a single hub, a fixed feeder rotation and cargo consolidated before the long-haul leg.

OOCL will launch a Port Klang to India east coast loop on 22 November. The Far East to Chennai Service 4 will rotate Port Klang, Visakhapatnam, Chennai and Port Klang, the carrier announced on 6 November, Maritime Gateway reported. OOCL confirmed the launch date and port sequence but did not publish frequency, transit times, deployed capacity or the inaugural vessel, so the capacity effect of the loop cannot yet be measured.

Fleet & Capacity

Emissions intensity varies by up to 35% between carriers on the same trades. VesselBot’s third-quarter analysis of 83,817 voyages by 6,730 container ships found a spread of 20% to 35% between the most and least efficient operators on four major fronthaul trades, Ship & Bunker reported. Average well-to-wake intensity was 235.1 g CO2e per TEU-km, up 0.5% year on year, while total emissions fell 1.9% to 55.5m tonnes of CO2e as transport work rose 1.2% to 712bn TEU-km. Very large container ships improved 12.9% and feeder intensity rose 1.3% to 285.9 g, and port time increased 6.2%. The report also found that the Suez return had not yet materially shortened Asia-Europe voyages, with most services still routing via the Cape of Good Hope, which matters for EU ETS exposure because voyage length drives the emissions a carrier reports and pays for.

ONE’s fleet stood at 280 vessels and 2,271,685 TEU at 30 September, after two newbuild deliveries in the quarter totalling 27,864 TEU, according to its results presentation. That is fleet capacity, not deployed capacity on any trade.

What It Means

The upgrade is a third-quarter result arriving in the fourth. ONE earned US$1,348m in the first half and now forecasts US$652m in the second, which is its own statement that the rate environment that produced the quarter is not expected to repeat. The assumption behind the number is explicit: current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz persist through the fiscal year and Suez transits resume gradually. Read together with the half-finished Suez return, that is a carrier telling its shareholders that more capacity is coming back, and that it has priced a gradual rather than abrupt return.

The volume and price data point in different directions, and both are real. September liftings of 17.35m TEU and a price index 62% above a year earlier describe a market that is still unusually tight by historical standards. Asia to North Europe spot pricing at US$2,700 to US$3,400 per 40ft describes a trade where carriers are already discounting below their own November targets and preparing another attempt on 15 November. Neither number contradicts the other: the index measures where rates are relative to last year, and the discounts measure where they are heading relative to last month.

For shippers, the practical items this week are the ones with dates attached. The Los Angeles and Long Beach watchmen deadline has moved to 20 November rather than disappeared, so the cargo-handling risk at the busiest US container complex is deferred, not resolved. Maersk’s withdrawal of the heavy-load surcharge cuts a cost line for heavy 20ft contract cargo out of northwest India from 7 November, while leaving the rest of the tariff intact. And OOCL’s new Malaysia to India east coast loop adds a direct option from 22 November without yet disclosing the capacity behind it.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

The container surplus comes in two waves. Only one can be undone

Routing capacity returns in weeks and can be reversed, while the orderbook returns in years and cannot. That split separates the 2027 and 2030 rate outlooks.

World Container Index falls 3% as transpacific rates slide

Drewry's composite fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40ft as transpacific spot rates dropped, while Asia-Europe held and carriers pushed US$3,000 November increases.

Container rates are falling. The cost has moved to the rail leg

Drewry's index fell 3% in the week to 29 October while 35,688 boxes waited for trains at LA-Long Beach, showing where the import chain now jams.

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