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Rate rebound lifts composites, but Asia-Europe indexes split

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 15 min read

The composite measures turned higher in mid-October. The lane-level readings underneath them did not agree on much. Drewry’s World Container Index rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft container in its assessment dated 15 October 2026, from US$4,351 a week earlier. The Freightos Baltic Index composite stood at US$3,397.20 in the weekly update published on 20 October, up 2% from about US$3,344. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index came in at 3,679.58 points for 16 October, up 15.47 points or 0.42% from 3,664.11 on 9 October.

For Asia to North Europe, the same week produced gains of 2.5% to 6% on three separate datasets and a fall of 7.08% on a fourth. That is not a rounding difference. It is the sort of split that the container freight rate indexes explainer sets out: different port pairs, samples, weightings and publication timings mean two indexes can describe related markets and still point in opposite directions.

A note on dates, because it governs how the table below should be read. Drewry’s latest published assessment is dated 15 October; a 22 October assessment was not on the index page when this update was written. The Freightos lane values are from the weekly update published on 20 October, covering the previous week. Xeneta’s data highlights are dated 16 October with changes measured from 9 October. The SCFI reading is for 16 October and was fetched from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange table directly this week. The NYSHEX values are taken from Container News’ report of 19 October, which names the index and its 16 October publication date.

Spot Rates

Index (provider)Trade laneUnitPeriodLevelChangeSource
World Container Index (Drewry)Composite, eight east-west lanesper 40ftWeek to 15 Oct 2026US$4,485+3% week on week, from US$4,351Drewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Rotterdamper 40ftWeek to 15 Oct 2026US$3,522+6% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Genoaper 40ftWeek to 15 Oct 2026US$3,945+7% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Los Angelesper 40ftWeek to 15 Oct 2026US$7,884+3% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to New Yorkper 40ftWeek to 15 Oct 2026US$10,075-1% week on weekDrewry
FBX composite (Freightos Baltic Index)Globalper 40ftWeek reported 20 Oct 2026US$3,397.20+2%, from about US$3,344Freightos
FBX11 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North Europeper FEU (40ft)Week reported 20 Oct 2026US$3,442+6% week on weekFreightos
FBX13 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)Week reported 20 Oct 2026US$3,927+3% week on weekFreightos
FBX01 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North America West Coastper FEU (40ft)Week reported 20 Oct 2026US$8,126unchangedFreightos
FBX03 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North America East Coastper FEU (40ft)Week reported 20 Oct 2026US$9,700+1% week on weekFreightos
FBX (Freightos Baltic Index)Transatlantic, as stated by Freightosper FEU (40ft)Week reported 20 Oct 2026US$2,850+US$200 since end-September; 25% above a year earlierFreightos
Xeneta market averageFar East to US West Coastper FEU (40ft)16 Oct 2026, vs 9 OctUS$8,296-0.2% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)16 Oct 2026, vs 9 OctUS$11,495-0.1% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to North Europeper FEU (40ft)16 Oct 2026, vs 9 OctUS$3,568+2.5% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)16 Oct 2026, vs 9 OctUS$4,165+3.2% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageNorth Europe to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)16 Oct 2026, vs 9 OctUS$2,946+0.8% week on weekXeneta
SCFI composite (Shanghai Shipping Exchange)Shanghai export lanes, all routesindex points16 Oct 2026, vs 9 Oct3,679.58+15.47 points, or +0.42%SSE
NYFI (NYSHEX, via Container News)Asia to US West Coastindex level as published16 Oct 20267,475.40+0.91%Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, via Container News)Asia to US East Coastindex level as published16 Oct 20269,938.75+1.09%Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, via Container News)Asia to North Europeindex level as published16 Oct 20263,118.71-7.08%Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, via Container News)Transatlantic westboundindex level as published16 Oct 20263,109.16+14.77%Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, via Container News)Transatlantic eastboundindex level as published16 Oct 20261,172.79-8.53%Container News

Asia to North Europe is where the readings split. Drewry recorded Shanghai to Rotterdam 6% higher at US$3,522 per 40ft and Shanghai to Genoa 7% higher at US$3,945, the first weekly increase on the trade after 13 consecutive declines. Freightos put Asia to North Europe 6% higher at US$3,442 per FEU and Asia to the Mediterranean 3% higher at US$3,927 per FEU, attributing the move to general rate increases aimed at putting pressure on rates ahead of 2027 contract negotiations. Xeneta’s market average was US$3,568 per FEU to North Europe, up 2.5% from 9 October, and US$4,165 per FEU to the Mediterranean, up 3.2%. NYSHEX’s NYFI went the other way on Asia to North Europe, down 7.08% to 3,118.71 index points in its 16 October reading.

The NYFI number is an index level rather than a dollar rate per container, so it is not directly comparable with the FEU figures beside it. What matters is direction: three providers saw a weekly gain on Asia to North Europe in the same window in which a fourth saw a fall of more than 7%. A single week of GRI-driven increases is the least reliable kind of move to read, because announcements are not implementations, and Drewry says so itself in the next section.

The transpacific was close to flat across all four providers. Drewry had Shanghai to Los Angeles 3% higher at US$7,884 per 40ft and Shanghai to New York 1% lower at US$10,075. Freightos had the West Coast unchanged at US$8,126 per FEU and the East Coast 1% higher at US$9,700. Xeneta’s US West Coast average was 0.2% lower at US$8,296 and the East Coast 0.1% lower at US$11,495. The NYFI gained 0.91% to 7,475.40 on the West Coast and 1.09% to 9,938.75 on the East Coast. Flat is the finding, and the gap between the coasts remains wide: Xeneta’s East Coast average is 39% above its West Coast average, the spread that the 19 October analysis examined.

The transatlantic is the only lane group with a large, uncontested move. NYSHEX had westbound rates up 14.77% to 3,109.16 and eastbound down 8.53% to 1,172.79. Freightos put transatlantic spot rates at about US$2,850 per FEU, some US$200 higher than at the end of September and 25% above a year earlier, and linked the year-on-year gap to what it calls possible upward pressure from elevated bunker costs. Xeneta’s North Europe to US East Coast average rose 0.8% to US$2,946 per FEU.

At composite level the agreement is better than the lane detail suggests, though the gains are small against the levels. WCI up 3%, FBX up 2%, SCFI up 0.42%. The two other Chinese benchmarks Container News reported for 16 October also rose: the CCFI 0.54% to 1,922.64 points and the NCFI 2.67% to 2,496.79 points. After a 13 week slide on Asia-Europe and a flat transpacific, a composite gain of 2% to 3% is a stabilisation, not a reversal, and last week’s market update shows how narrow the base was before it.

Capacity and Blank Sailings

Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker, dated 16 October, counts 44 blank sailings across the major east-west trades between week 43 (19 to 25 October) and week 47 (16 to 22 November), against 713 planned sailings. That is a 6% cancellation rate, with 94% of scheduled sailings expected to operate. Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean account for 44% of the cancellations, the transpacific eastbound for 36% and the transatlantic for 20%.

In its WCI commentary Drewry counted six blank sailings announced on the transpacific for the coming week, unchanged from the week of the assessment, and two on Asia-Europe, down from six. Fewer blanks on Asia-Europe and more Suez transits both add effective capacity to that trade, which is why the same commentary treats the 6% to 7% rate increases with caution. A blank sailing removes capacity from a schedule for one voyage; a Suez routing adds it back for every voyage on the loop.

Xeneta quantified the transpacific side of the same decision. Carriers blanked 58,200 TEU on the Far East to US West Coast trade in the week to 16 October and 35,500 TEU on the Far East to US East Coast trade, even though spot rates on both are still up triple-digit percentages on pre-Hormuz levels. Xeneta’s senior shipping analyst Emily Stausbøll said the blanking “looks like the behavior of carriers who don’t believe the market will hold and are protecting the current level rather than expecting further growth”.

The routing numbers are the more consequential capacity story. Xeneta reports that weekly scheduled capacity crossing Bab el-Mandeb in at least one direction stood at 448,273 TEU on 5 October, double the level of 27 August 2026, though still only 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023 before the diversions began. Those are scheduled slots, not lifted volumes, and the return has so far been gradual enough to avoid the vessel bunching that a sudden switch would cause.

What It Means

The rebound is being engineered more than it is being earned. Drewry reports carriers attempting to push Asia-Europe rates to US$4,500 to US$4,800 per 40ft through higher FAK rates effective 19 October, and states plainly that successful implementation remains uncertain given increased capacity on the route. Freightos makes the same point from the sales side: some forwarders doubt the increases will stick in current conditions.

Two forces are pulling in opposite directions on capacity, and neither has resolved. The Red Sea return releases effective capacity into the Asia-Europe trade and, in Freightos’ assessment, raises overcapacity risk for carriers in 2027. Congestion at Far East hubs has been easing but still absorbs tonnage, which has helped carriers hold rate levels so far. That is Freightos’ reading of the market, not a forecast of ours.

Demand is the other half of the equation, and the most recent institutional view is softer than the rate rebound implies. Sea-Intelligence’s 22 October note on the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook reports projected world trade volume growth falling from 5.0% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2027, with import demand in advanced economies at 5.0% in 2026 easing to 4.2% in 2027. Sea-Intelligence’s conclusion is that demand is not growing fast enough to absorb all the new capacity entering service. The same note records Chinese exports to the US down 22% over 12 months and US exports to China down 25%, with production rerouted through Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia rather than lost, which lengthens routings and adds port calls.

Read together, the week’s data supports a narrow statement. Composite indexes rose 2% to 3%, the lane detail is mixed, and the Asia-Europe increase depends on rate increases that carriers have announced but not yet collected. Whether the fourth quarter holds at these levels is a question the indexes will answer week by week, not one this update can settle.

Regulation and Costs

Fuel sits outside the index levels above and moves on its own timetable. In Ship & Bunker’s world bunker price table, as displayed on 22 October, the global 20 port VLSFO average was US$920.00 per tonne, up US$8.50 on the previous assessment, with Singapore at US$932.00, Rotterdam at US$759.00, Fujairah at US$968.00 and Los Angeles/Long Beach at US$1,069.00. The Fujairah figure carries a premium of more than US$200 per tonne over Rotterdam, the kind of regional spread that feeds directly into surcharge calculations on Gulf and Indian Ocean services.

Bunker prices feed the BAF element of a contract, and that element resets on its own schedule rather than tracking the weekly spot indexes. A carrier collecting a higher BAF is not evidence of a higher spot rate, and the reverse also holds.

Sources

Related reading

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Asia-Europe spot rates extend their fall as Transpacific gains stall

Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to US$4,434 per 40ft in the week to 1 October, Asia-Europe's twelfth weekly decline, while Transpacific gains slowed.

The transpacific premium is mostly a capacity decision

Asia-US East Coast spot rates are more than three times Asia-North Europe. The gap reflects blanked capacity and Red Sea routing more than a demand boom.