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ContainerSignal Daily: Asia-Europe double sailings top 2021 peak

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 11 min read

Carriers have lost the ability to manage Asia-Europe capacity by cancelling sailings. Sea-Intelligence counted double sailings on Asia-Mediterranean routes at 19% of departures in October and November, and 17% on Asia-North Europe, both above the peaks recorded during the 2021 pandemic congestion, according to a report published by Lloyd’s List and carried by Kuehne+Nagel’s myKN portal. A double sailing happens when a delayed ship departs alongside the next scheduled vessel for the same weekly service, adding capacity nobody planned for.

Today’s Signals

Trade Routes & Capacity

Congestion is now setting the schedule, not the carriers. Sea-Intelligence attributed the pattern to “severe vessel bunching caused by ongoing port congestion and schedule unreliability in Asia”, and the same bunching inverted the usual Golden Week pattern. Between 2012 and 2019 average weekly capacity fell 21% on Asia-Mediterranean routes and 16% on Asia-North Europe during the holiday compared with the third quarter, the consultancy said. This year capacity rose 18% on Asia-Mediterranean, 15% on Asia to US east coast, and 4% on both Asia-North Europe and Asia to US west coast. Blank sailings covered just 3% of Golden Week capacity on Asia-Mediterranean against a 23% historical average, and 5% on Asia-North Europe against 17%, which is the mechanism the guide to blank sailings describes as the carriers’ main short-term supply lever.

The Suez return is the second supply source. Sea-Intelligence expects about 60% of Asia-Europe container capacity to transit the Suez Canal in November and December, having already returned 70% to 80% of Asia-Mediterranean westbound capacity and 80% to 90% eastbound to the canal. It expects a full return by the first quarter of 2027 provided there are no further attacks, the report said. A shorter round voyage releases effective capacity without a single new ship, the arithmetic behind Asia-Europe rates riding a half-finished Suez return.

Freight Rates

The composites rose, the Chinese indexes did not. Drewry’s World Container Index gained 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container in the week to 22 October, its highest level in 15 weeks and a second consecutive weekly increase, Container News reported in its weekly assessment round-up. The Freightos Baltic Index rose 5% to US$3,560 over the same weekly period, the same report said.

Shanghai and Ningbo were close to flat. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index edged up 0.05% to 3,681.34 points on 23 October from 3,679.58 a week earlier, while the China Containerized Freight Index fell 2.41% to 1,876.27 points from 1,922.64 and the Ningbo Containerized Freight Index rose 0.50% to 2,509.30 points from 2,496.79, according to the same Container News round-up of the published assessments.

Lane detail points in different directions. The NYSHEX Freight Index assessment for 23 October put Asia to North Europe at 3,039.67, down 2.53% week on week, Asia to US west coast at 7,579.09, up 1.39%, and Asia to US east coast at 9,936.89, down 0.02%. Freightos put Asia to North Europe at US$3,551 per FEU, up 3%, Asia to the Mediterranean at US$4,252 per FEU, up 8%, Asia to US west coast at US$8,368 per FEU, up 3%, and Asia to US east coast at US$10,565 per FEU, up 9% to a new high for the year, in the same weekly update, which reports last week’s moves.

Carrier Updates

ZIM has gone back through the Red Sea. The Israeli carrier resumed taking the Red Sea route for its joint Asia to US east coast service with MSC, Freightos reported, noting that the Houthis had declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israel-linked vessels as recently as August. Alphaliner estimates that nearly two thirds of total Asia-Europe capacity is now restored, according to the same update.

European shortsea is consolidating. Boluda Shipping agreed to acquire Samskip, a combination the companies say will operate 32 vessels offering more than 750,000 teu across 18 routes, 28 countries and 21 maritime terminals, plus five rail terminals and more than 500 trucks, The Loadstar reported. The deal is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to complete on 1 January, with the companies pointing to Europe to West Africa connectivity as the growth case.

Ports

The Los Angeles and Long Beach rail queue is the number to watch. About 35,688 import containers were waiting for on-dock trains at the two ports on 26 October, of which 10,562 had sat on the terminal for at least nine days, FreightWaves reported, citing The Dwell’s compilation of the ports’ daily rail reports. The figures count containers, not TEU. Los Angeles accounted for 8,133 of 19,626 waiting containers, or 41.4% past the nine-day mark, against 2,429 of 16,062, or 15.1%, at Long Beach. Average rail container dwell across the complex rose to 7.19 days in September from 6.75 days in August, and truck dwell to 3.18 days from 2.95, according to Pacific Merchant Shipping Association data cited in the report. Both ports handled record Septembers, with Los Angeles at about 1.04 million TEU and Long Beach at 997,177 TEU.

Shenzhen passed 30 million TEU three weeks early. The port had handled 30.10 million TEU as of 17 October, up 7.7% year on year, with loaded container throughput up 8.0%, according to the city’s transport authorities, Hellenic Shipping News reported. The port operates more than 270 international container liner routes, and APEC economies account for more than half of its foreign trade volume.

COSCO Shipping Ports grew throughput faster than revenue per box. Third-quarter throughput rose 8.4% year on year to 42.27 million TEU and equity throughput 8.1% to 12.88 million TEU, the company said in its results announcement. Revenue rose 13.0% to US$484.3 million and gross profit 19.3% to US$128.1 million, while profit attributable to equity holders was almost flat at US$82.6 million. Chinese terminals handled 73.2% of quarterly throughput, at 30.94 million TEU, up 4.9%.

Fleet & Capacity

India approved a US$1.05 billion container manufacturing programme. The Union Cabinet cleared the Container Manufacturing Promotion Scheme on 28 October, aiming to lift annual capacity from about 70,000 teu to 750,000 teu over a programme running from the 2027-28 financial year to 2039-40, Splash reported. The scheme carries INR88.91 billion in production assistance, a 3% interest subvention on eligible term loans, minimum capacity thresholds of 100,000 teu for greenfield plants and 25,000 teu for expansion, and domestic content rising from 70% to 90%, Maritime Gateway reported. Chinese manufacturers account for more than 95% of global dry freight container production and virtually the entire reefer market, according to Splash.

A Korean intra-Asia carrier is buying bigger ships. Brokers reported Namsung Shipping ordered two firm 7,100 teu vessels at Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Corporation with options for two more, for delivery in 2030 and 2031, Splash reported. No price or propulsion specification was disclosed. It would be the carrier’s first order at DSIC and its second Chinese contract this year, after two 4,300 teu ships at Huangpu Wenchong in March.

Regulation & Policy

UK carbon costs are arriving with their own paperwork. Operators of ships above 5,000 gross tonnes must monitor carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, file verified annual reports and surrender allowances under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme, with a £100 (US$133) penalty for every missing allowance, The Loadstar reported, citing a Normec webinar. Monitoring plans must be approved by the regulator within 42 days of a first UK port call or maritime activity, and offshore vessels join the scheme on 1 January without a phase-in. A proposal to include 50% of emissions from international voyages was still under consultation, the report said. Unlike the EU system described in the guide to the EU ETS for shipping, the UK requires regulator approval of the monitoring plan rather than verifier approval.

What It Means

The rate indexes and the schedule data are telling the same story from opposite ends. Composites are at 15-week highs because congestion is absorbing tonnage and slowing the round voyage, while Chinese indexes and the Asia to North Europe assessments are flat to lower because carriers keep deploying capacity they cannot withdraw. Double sailings at record levels mean schedule reliability will stay weak and port congestion will keep feeding itself, which is why schedule reliability matters more than the headline rate for anyone planning a delivery date.

For shippers, the practical reading is that published indexes are a poor guide to what is available on the market this month. Ask for offers lane by lane, check which routing the ship is actually taking, and expect November rate increases to be tested rather than simply applied.

At Los Angeles and Long Beach the constraint is inland, not the water. A rail queue of nearly 36,000 containers with four in ten Los Angeles boxes past nine days is the kind of backlog that a short labour stoppage would convert into a fortnight of delay, so dwell time is the metric to track alongside any strike notice.

The Indian container scheme is a multi-year supply-side story and changes nothing about equipment availability in 2026 or 2027. It matters because dry container production is close to a single-country monopoly, and any credible second source would change replacement costs and lead times for carriers and lessors later this decade.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

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