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Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 16 min read

Spot rates rose on both main east-west headhauls in the week to 23 October, the second consecutive weekly gain on Asia to Europe, while the same lanes were carrying more scheduled capacity than at any point on record. Drewry’s assessment for 22 October put its World Container Index composite at US$4,585 per 40ft container, up 2% week on week and the highest in 15 weeks, with rates higher on all eight of its east-west lanes. Sea-Intelligence, in a note published on 29 October, reported average weekly deployed capacity in October and November above 350,000 TEU on Asia to North Europe and above 260,000 TEU on Asia to the Mediterranean.

Both statements are supported by the data. They describe different things.

Spot Rates

Drewry’s 22 October assessment had Shanghai to Rotterdam at US$3,632 per 40ft, up 3%, and Shanghai to Genoa at US$4,152, up 5%. On the transpacific, Shanghai to Los Angeles was 2% higher at US$8,007 and Shanghai to New York 1% higher at US$10,166. Drewry’s own trade grouping in its Cancelled Sailings Tracker puts the week’s gains at 4% for Asia-Europe and the Mediterranean, 3% for the transatlantic and 1% for the transpacific.

Freightos, in the weekly update published on 28 October and covering the week to 23 October, had Asia to North Europe 3% higher at US$3,551 per FEU and Asia to the Mediterranean 8% higher at US$4,252. Its transpacific lanes gained more: Asia to the US West Coast up 3% to US$8,368 per FEU and Asia to the US East Coast up 9% to US$10,565, which Freightos describes as a high for the year. The FBX composite on the Freightos index page stood at US$3,560.20 per 40ft when checked on 29 October; Container News reported the weekly reading as up 5% from about US$3,397.

Xeneta’s market averages for 23 October show the same direction on Asia-Europe with a larger move: Far East to North Europe at US$3,698 per FEU, up 6.8% from 16 October, and Far East to the Mediterranean at US$4,442, up 5.8%. On the transpacific, Xeneta has Far East to US West Coast at US$8,311 per FEU and Far East to US East Coast at US$11,525, both up 0.2%. North Europe to US East Coast slipped 0.2% to US$2,963.

Index (provider)Trade laneUnitPeriodLevelChangeSource
World Container Index (Drewry)Composite, eight east-west lanesper 40ftWeek to 22 Oct 2026US$4,585+2% week on week; highest in 15 weeksDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Rotterdamper 40ftWeek to 22 Oct 2026US$3,632+3% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Genoaper 40ftWeek to 22 Oct 2026US$4,152+5% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Los Angelesper 40ftWeek to 22 Oct 2026US$8,007+2% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to New Yorkper 40ftWeek to 22 Oct 2026US$10,166+1% week on weekDrewry
FBX composite (Freightos Baltic Index)Global, weighted average of twelve lanesper 40ftWeek to 23 Oct 2026US$3,560.20+5%, from about US$3,397Freightos
FBX11 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to North Europeper FEU (40ft)Week to 23 Oct 2026US$3,551+3% week on weekFreightos weekly update
FBX13 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)Week to 23 Oct 2026US$4,252+8% week on weekFreightos weekly update
FBX01 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to US West Coastper FEU (40ft)Week to 23 Oct 2026US$8,368+3% week on weekFreightos weekly update
FBX03 (Freightos Baltic Index)China/East Asia to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)Week to 23 Oct 2026US$10,565+9% week on week; year highFreightos weekly update
Xeneta market averageFar East to North Europeper FEU (40ft)23 Oct 2026, vs 16 OctUS$3,698+6.8% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to Mediterraneanper FEU (40ft)23 Oct 2026, vs 16 OctUS$4,442+5.8% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to US West Coastper FEU (40ft)23 Oct 2026, vs 16 OctUS$8,311+0.2% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageFar East to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)23 Oct 2026, vs 16 OctUS$11,525+0.2% week on weekXeneta
Xeneta market averageNorth Europe to US East Coastper FEU (40ft)23 Oct 2026, vs 16 OctUS$2,963-0.2% week on weekXeneta
SCFI composite (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as reported by Container News)Shanghai export lanes, all routesindex points23 Oct 2026, vs 16 Oct3,681.34+0.05%, from 3,679.58Container News
CCFI (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as reported by Container News)China export lanes, all routesindex points23 Oct 2026, vs 16 Oct1,876.27-2.41%, from 1,922.64Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, as reported by Container News)Asia to North Europeindex level as published23 Oct 20263,039.67-2.53%, from 3,118.71Container News

The Asia-Europe lane is the strongest area of agreement. Drewry has Shanghai to Rotterdam 3% higher, Freightos has the same lane 3% higher at a similar level, and Xeneta has Far East to North Europe up 6.8%. The gap between Xeneta’s 6.8% and the 3% recorded by the other two is a matter of sample and timing, not of market direction, and the level differences run the other way: Xeneta’s US$3,698 per FEU sits above both Drewry’s US$3,632 and Freightos’ US$3,551.

The transpacific eastbound lane is where the readings separate. Freightos has US East Coast rates up 9% to a year high of US$10,565 per FEU, while Xeneta has the same broad trade up 0.2% at US$11,525 and Drewry has Shanghai to New York up 1% at US$10,166. A 9% weekly move and a 0.2% weekly move on the same trade are far apart, and the level gap of roughly US$1,000 per FEU between the Freightos and Xeneta averages reflects different port baskets on the East Coast rather than a dispute about what happened. Freightos’ own commentary adds the qualifier that East Coast daily prices have pulled back since the weekly average was struck.

The Chinese indexes complicate the composite story in a way that is worth stating plainly. In the week the FBX composite gained 5% and the WCI gained 2%, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index rose 0.05% to 3,681.34 points and the China Containerized Freight Index fell 2.41% to 1,876.27, both for 23 October. The Shanghai Shipping Exchange’s tables are rendered by script and were not readable from this host, so those two figures are taken from Container News’ report of 27 October, which names the exchange and the period. The NCFI, also reported there, rose about 0.50% to 2,509.30. The SCFI covers Shanghai exports only and rolls surcharges into its assessments, while the FBX is a weighted average of twelve lanes; a flat Shanghai export index and a rising global composite can both be right in the same week.

NYSHEX data reported alongside those figures points the other way on Asia to North Europe, with its NYFI down 2.53% to 3,039.67 for 23 October. That is the second consecutive weekly decline on that measure, after a 7.08% fall the week before, so three providers see an Asia-Europe gain and one sees a loss in the same window. The rate rebound is still narrow, and a fourth weekly increase will not settle the question either way.

Capacity and Blank Sailings

Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker dated 23 October counts 56 blank sailings across the major east-west trades between week 44 (26 October to 1 November) and week 48 (23 to 30 November), against 714 planned sailings. That is an 8% cancellation rate, up from 6% in the previous edition, with 92% of services expected to operate. Asia to North Europe and the Mediterranean account for 54% of the cancellations, the transpacific eastbound for 32% and the transatlantic for 14%. Gemini Cooperation has the lowest blanking rate among the major carrier groups at 1%.

The WCI commentary divides the two headhauls in the other direction. Eight blank sailings have been announced on Asia-Europe for the week after the assessment, up from two in the assessment week, which Drewry reads as tight capacity on that trade. On the transpacific the count fell from six to two. A blank sailing removes capacity from a single voyage, which is why carriers use it to support a rate increase in a given week rather than to change the underlying network.

The capacity numbers from Sea-Intelligence are larger than anything the blanking data can offset. Its 29 October note reports average weekly deployed capacity in October and November 2026 pushing past 350,000 TEU on Asia to North Europe and above 260,000 TEU on Asia to the Mediterranean, well above the elevated 2025 baseline and against a normal late-year taper after Golden Week. On Asia to North America West Coast, deployed capacity reached nearly 393,000 TEU in October and is put at an unprecedented 400,000 TEU weekly average for November. Asia to North America East Coast is at its highest level for any year in the same two months.

Sea-Intelligence attributes the surge to vessel bunching rather than to new services. Vessels scheduled to depart in the third quarter were heavily delayed and cascaded into October and November, which inflates scheduled capacity without adding cargo space in the weeks the cargo actually sails. That distinction matters for reading the numbers above: deployed capacity and effective capacity are not the same measure, and a schedule inflated by bunching can coexist with a tight market.

Drewry’s operational readings for the same weeks support the bunching explanation. Vessel waiting times at Shanghai fell from 97 hours in week 38 to 38 hours in week 42, a large improvement that also releases delayed tonnage into the following weeks. Suez Canal transits rose slightly, from 54 in week 41 to 55 in week 42, while only two containerships sailed into the Gulf in week 42, down from five the week before. Freightos, citing Alphaliner, puts close to two-thirds of Asia-Europe capacity back on Suez routing.

Reliability improved marginally at the global level. Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance report for September, released on 28 October, puts schedule reliability at 50.6%, up 0.9 percentage points month on month after three consecutive declines that took the measure down 14.8 points from a peak of 64.5% in May. The average delay for late vessel arrivals improved by 0.30 days to 6.65 days, though that is still the second-highest September figure on record. Maersk was the most reliable of the top thirteen carriers at 64.8%, ahead of Hapag-Lloyd at 60.4%, MSC at 57.7% and CMA CGM at 51.8%; Wan Hai was least reliable at 26.7%. Across alliances for August and September, MSC led at 68.9%, Gemini followed at 68.4%, Ocean Alliance stood at 44.8% and Premier at 41.5%. These are Sea-Intelligence’s definitions and sample; Xeneta’s September scorecard, reported earlier this month, put global on-time performance at 27% on a different methodology, as the guide to the metric sets out.

What It Means

Three things are happening at once, and the weekly indexes only capture the net of them. Deployed capacity is at a record, vessel bunching is inflating that record, and congestion in Asia is still absorbing tonnage. Rates rose on both headhauls anyway, which points more to the second and third factors than to the first.

Xeneta’s chief analyst Peter Sand frames the same puzzle on Asia-Europe: rates rose 6.8% to North Europe in a week when Red Sea returns were adding capacity to the trade. His explanation is demand, with volumes shipped from the Far East to Europe up 12.2% in the first seven months of the year, and he notes that spot rates remain 67% above their 28 February level into North Europe and 33% above it into the Mediterranean. Xeneta’s figures also show how much of the July to October slide has not been recovered: Far East to North Europe is still 33.2% below its 1 July level and the Mediterranean 36.7% below.

The increases themselves are the least durable part of the picture. Freightos reports that some forwarders are already seeing carrier discounts and do not expect November general rate increases to hold, while Drewry describes carriers using blank sailings to put upward pressure on rates. Both are descriptions of intent, not of collected revenue, and the surcharges sit outside the index levels in the table above. These are spot market figures throughout; contract rates reset on their own schedules and are not represented here.

Two operational risks sit over the next fortnight. A watchmen’s union at Los Angeles and Long Beach has authorised a strike as early as 1 November; Freightos notes that the union covers a small share of the workforce but provides security for a large share of terminals, and that rail delays are already in place, with FreightWaves reporting about 35,000 containers waiting for rail service at the two ports. Separately, the Gulf remains the thinnest part of the network, with two containership sailings in week 42 against five the week before. Neither is a rate forecast, and this update makes none.

Regulation and Costs

Bunker prices moved up modestly in the same week. In Ship & Bunker’s table dated 28 October, the global 20 port VLSFO average was US$944.00 per tonne, up US$7.50 from the previous assessment, with Singapore at US$1,000.50, Rotterdam at US$770.00, Houston at US$842.00 and Fujairah at US$989.50. The Singapore figure is more than US$230 per tonne above Rotterdam, the kind of spread that drives BAF differences between Asia-origin and Europe-origin contracts.

Bunker costs feed the BAF element of a contract, which resets on its own timetable rather than tracking the weekly spot indexes. A carrier raising a BAF is not evidence of a higher spot rate, and the reverse also holds.

Sources

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