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ContainerSignal Daily: Hormuz limpet mine attack raises Gulf risk

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 13 min read

A tanker was disabled by two explosive devices attached to its hull in the Strait of Hormuz on 29 October, an incident UKMTO verified and maritime security sources identified as a limpet mine attack, the first reported successful use of that tactic against merchant shipping in the waterway since the conflict began in February. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy then claimed on Friday that four oil tankers had caught fire and exploded in the strait while using routes it considers unauthorised, a claim Reuters could not independently verify. The container market’s direct exposure to the strait remains limited, but it runs through Gulf hub services, feeder connections and war risk pricing, and Drewry’s assessment for Shanghai to Jebel Ali held at US$8,584 per 40ft container in the week to 29 October.

Today’s Signals

Trade Routes

The limpet mine attack is a new tactic in an old campaign. According to UKMTO Warning 187-26, a small boat approached a tanker’s port side about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, while the vessel was on an outbound transit, and attached two explosive devices above the waterline. The explosions started a fire in the engine room and temporarily disabled the ship. UKMTO confirmed on Friday that the crew was safe, the fire had been extinguished, there was no environmental impact and the tanker had resumed its voyage. Maritime security sources identified the devices as limpet mines, and Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group identified the vessel as the Louise 1 and compared the tactic with the 2019 attacks off Fujairah and in the Gulf of Oman, gCaptain reported. Kelly warned that mines placed below the waterline on ships at anchor would be harder to detect and would cause significant water ingress.

Other incidents on the same day remain less clear. A separate UKMTO warning recorded a tanker struck by an unidentified projectile while completing an outbound transit at about 1600 UTC, with no crew injuries or environmental impact reported. UKMTO also reported a dhow on fire about nine nautical miles north of Khasab, which listed and sank with its crew evacuated. The IRGC Navy’s claim of four tankers burning followed an earlier claim of three, and Iranian state media said one vessel carrying more than 2 million barrels of crude had hit a mine. Iran also said it had destroyed a US unmanned surface vessel in the eastern strait, which US Central Command denied, Reuters reported. Iran has repeatedly described attacks on ships using routes outside its control as mine strikes, and independent evidence for its broader sea mine claims has remained limited.

Commercial traffic is recovering slowly from a very low base. UKMTO’s weekly overview for 30 October recorded 59 of 81 reported projectile strikes since 6 July along the southern route that US forces coordinate, and 145 Iran-US conflict-related incidents across its reporting area since 28 February, including 88 involving vessels in the strait through 28 October. It counted 122 outbound and 155 inbound transits in its latest seven-day period, against 114 and 127 the week before, with combined traffic still about 70% below pre-conflict levels. Around 80% of the transits reported to the US Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping involve energy carriers, which is why the container impact runs through Gulf services, feeder connections and insurance rather than direct boxship transits.

Freight Rates

The global composite fell while intra-Asia moved the other way. Drewry’s World Container Index stood at US$4,429 per 40ft container in its assessment for Thursday 29 October, 3% lower week on week, with Shanghai to Los Angeles down 6% to US$7,514 and Shanghai to New York down 5% to US$9,631, as set out in yesterday’s briefing. The same weekly round put Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index up US$46 to US$1,504 per 40ft container, about 200% above its level a year earlier, Drewry reported. Shanghai to Singapore slipped 3% to US$1,889 per 40ft and Shanghai to Tanjung Pelepas 2% to US$2,053, while Shanghai to Jebel Ali was unchanged at US$8,584 and rates to Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta and Laem Chabang stayed elevated. Average vessel waiting time at Ho Chi Minh City rose from eight to 22 hours over the fortnight to week 43.

Blank sailings are being withdrawn on both east-west legs. Drewry counted six blank sailings announced for the transpacific in the coming week, up from five, and four on Asia to Europe, down from eight, as the guide to blank sailings explains, fewer cancellations release effective capacity. The same assessment put Suez Canal transits at 62 vessels last week, the highest weekly figure this year.

Fleet & Capacity

Maersk has reportedly chosen Hudong-Zhonghua for a 24,000 TEU order. TradeWinds reported, and iMarine relayed, that Maersk selected the Chinese yard for 12 firm and 12 optional LNG dual-fuel ships of 24,000 TEU each, in a contract worth about US$5.8 billion, or roughly US$240 million per vessel, with deliveries from late 2029 through 2030, iMarine reported. Neither Maersk nor Hudong-Zhonghua has announced the order, and the report rests on broking sources, so the figures should be treated as reported rather than confirmed. Hengli Heavy Industries, which Maersk has already tasked with 20 ships of 19,000 TEU, was the runner-up.

The context is a year of very large dual-fuel orders. iMarine put Maersk’s confirmed LNG dual-fuel ultra-large container ship orders this year at 34 vessels, 20 of 19,000 TEU at Hengli and 14 of 18,600 TEU at New Times, for delivery in 2029 and 2030 at a combined cost of nearly US$6.6 billion, and said all of the up to 58 ships Maersk planned to order this year, worth more than US$12 billion, went to Chinese yards. For scale on what 24,000 TEU means in a service loop, see how container ships are sized. None of this tonnage affects the 2027 supply picture.

Carrier Updates

ONE has ended its slot charter on Maersk’s Qilin service. ONE joined the Shanghai to Australia connection in July 2026 and marketed it as the Australia Express, with a rotation of Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, Melbourne and Shanghai. Maersk continues to operate Qilin between China and Australia, DynaLiners reported via Container News. The change removes one partner from a secondary north-south loop rather than altering capacity on the main east-west trades.

Reliability improved marginally in September, on one measure. Sea-Intelligence’s Global Liner Performance report recorded overall schedule reliability of 50.6% in September, up 0.9 percentage points month on month after three consecutive declines totalling 14.8 percentage points from the 64.5% peak in May. The average delay for late vessel arrivals fell 0.30 days to 6.65 days, Sea-Intelligence reported. Maersk was the most reliable of the top 13 lines at 64.8%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 60.4%, MSC at 57.7% and CMA CGM at 51.8%, with Wan Hai the weakest at 26.7%. Ten carriers improved month on month, ZIM by the most at 4.7 percentage points, while Maersk recorded the largest decline at 1.8 points. In August and September MSC was the most reliable alliance grouping at 68.9%, followed by Gemini at 68.4%, the Ocean Alliance at 44.8% and the Premier Alliance at 41.5%. None of the top 13 carriers improved year on year, and PIL recorded the largest annual decline at 27.3 points.

The figure is not comparable with the 27% on-time score for September published by Xeneta and covered in the briefing of 14 October. The two providers use different definitions and sample different port calls, which is why schedule reliability needs its provider named every time it is quoted.

Ports

Antwerp-Bruges has published its 2027 tariffs. Towage in the Antwerp docks rises 3.57%, and Zeebrugge platform towage dues are indexed at 2.65% under the contract with Boluda. The reduction on tonnage dues for double calls at Antwerp and Zeebrugge rises from 10% to 20%, the Environmental Ship Index discount is standardised at 10% for scores of 45 to 70 and 15% above 70, and concession tariffs are indexed at 3.97%. The maximum gross tonnage charged for containers rises from 175,000 to 200,000 GT, and from 1 January 2027 reefer boxes at the left bank border inspection post attract a monitoring fee of EUR 9 per container per calendar day and EUR 1,000 per out-of-hours repair intervention of up to three hours, Container News reported.

Georgia has opened an inland port serving Savannah. The US$134 million Gainesville Inland Port began operations on 4 May and held its opening ceremony on 29 October, with Norfolk Southern rail service to Savannah five days a week over a roughly 600 mile round trip, FreightWaves reported. The 104 acre site is designed for 200,000 containers a year at full build-out, and Georgia Ports expects to shift 26,000 containers to rail in its first year. It connects to Savannah’s roughly 40 weekly vessel calls and forms part of a near US$5 billion ten-year port expansion programme.

Quick Bites

  • Morocco opened the first container terminal at Nador West Med on 31 October. The East terminal has 1,520 metres of quay, an 18 metre draft and 70 hectares of yard, and was concessioned for nearly US$510 million to Marsa Maroc and Terminal Investment Limited, MSC’s terminal arm, for 25 years, the North Africa Post reported. A West terminal operated with CMA CGM, with capacity of 1.8 million TEU, is due to start in April 2027.
  • Chattogram customs began moving offices on 1 November. Seven assessment groups are in the first phase at the World Trade Centre in Agrabad, with full operations targeted for the first week of December while a new customs building is completed, Maritime Gateway reported. Bangladesh’s main box gateway depends on customs assessment throughput, so the phased move is a live clearance risk for the next month.

What It Means

Hormuz risk is now carried in three places, and none of them is the boxship transit count. The first is insurance: hull-attached explosives are harder to price than a known projectile corridor, and the EOS Risk warning about mines below the waterline on ships at anchor applies to any vessel waiting off Fujairah or Khor Fakkan, container ships included. The second is the Gulf hub network, where Shanghai to Jebel Ali has held at US$8,584 per 40ft while every other lane in Drewry’s round softened or held, a level the index attributes to Middle East disruption. The third is feeder scheduling, because transhipment through Gulf and Indian Ocean hubs absorbs delays that do not show up in an Asia-Europe transit time.

The intra-Asia numbers deserve more attention than they usually get. An Intra-Asia Container Index at US$1,504 per 40ft, about 200% above a year earlier, against a global composite that fell 3%, describes a regional market tight on equipment and port time rather than on demand, with Ho Chi Minh City waits tripling over a fortnight and Jakarta still constrained. Shippers moving boxes within Asia are paying for congestion that the east-west indexes do not capture.

On the supply side, the reported Maersk order is a 2029 and 2030 story, not a 2027 one, and it arrives alongside 34 confirmed dual-fuel ultra-large ship orders from the same carrier this year. Carriers committing to tonnage at this scale while spot rates fall on the main lanes is the pattern to watch into next year, and the lever that decides whether it bites remains blank sailings and scrapping rather than the orderbook itself.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

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