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ContainerSignal Daily: LA-Long Beach strike deadline looms

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · Updated October 29, 2026 · 13 min read

About 250 security watchmen at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach could walk out on Sunday 1 November, when the latest extension of their local contract expires. Their employer body, the Pacific Maritime Association, says the terminals involved handle roughly 85% of Long Beach’s cargo and 33% of Los Angeles’ cargo, and that other longshore workers are not expected to cross picket lines. No strike has been called and talks continue, but the deadline falls on the busiest container complex in the United States in the middle of the holiday import season.

Today’s Signals

Ports

The dispute is local, and the exposure is not. The International Longshore and Warehouse Union’s Local 26 represents maritime security staff and watchmen covering gate and cargo watch duties. In a 23 October letter, local president Luisa Gratz told fellow maritime unions that members may strike when the contract extension expires on 1 November, citing unsuccessful negotiations with employers and the Pacific Maritime Association since 2025, gCaptain reported. Members then voted to authorize a strike that could be called as soon as 1 November, Freightos reported in its weekly update, although no walkout had been called at the time of writing. PMA said it will keep negotiating “through the November 1 deadline and beyond if necessary”, and told Maritime Executive that “significant differences” remain after federal mediation.

Which terminals are exposed. PMA identified six container terminals employing Local 26 watchmen, while the union’s strike notice listed eight locations: APM Terminals, Long Beach Container Terminal, Total Terminals International, SSA at C-60, A-90 and LB 206, Pacific Container Terminal and OH 55. The watchmen’s agreement is separate from the coastwide longshore and clerk contract, which runs through 2028, so a walkout here would not be a re-run of 2023. The risk is second order: PMA warned that other ILWU members are unlikely to cross Local 26 picket lines, which would stop vessel, yard and gate work at the affected berths.

The timing is the problem. Los Angeles and Long Beach handled a combined 2.04 million TEU in September, an all-time monthly record for the complex, and the Journal of Commerce reported that retailers with distribution centres in the eastern half of the country are already worried about rail backlogs delaying holiday merchandise. A short stoppage at eight terminals would land on cargo that has little schedule slack left.

Cyclone Arnab has shut India’s eastern coast gateways. Visakhapatnam suspended all operations until further notice, and Gangavaram and Krishnapatnam received cyclone or storm warnings as the storm approached landfall on the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts on 28 October, The Loadstar reported, citing Kuehne+Nagel and Inchcape Shipping Services. Visakhapatnam terminals were returning to work in stages, one carrier official said. The cyclone killed three people in Andhra Pradesh, according to the report, and it hit ports already dealing with vessel bunching from late arrivals out of Asian load ports. The same disruption is visible further west: Kuehne+Nagel put average vessel waiting time at two days across Colombo’s terminals, citing transhipment congestion, missed feeder connections and routing changes, the mechanism transhipment hubs absorb first.

Port Houston set a September record of its own. The port handled 376,419 TEU in September, up 11% from 337,659 TEU a year earlier, with loaded imports at 174,189 TEU, up 16%, and loaded exports at 132,009 TEU, up 2%, FreightWaves reported, citing figures presented at the 21 October Port Commission meeting. Empty exports rose 31% to 55,963 TEU and total revenue tonnage rose 15% to 4.88 million tonnes. The port attributed the import strength to third-quarter demand and said export volumes accelerated late in September.

Trade Routes & Security

Drones struck a container ship bound for Constanta. Bulgaria’s defence minister, Dimitar Stoyanov, said a container ship was hit by three naval drones about 21 nautical miles off Shabla, in Bulgaria’s contiguous zone, while he met his Romanian and Turkish counterparts in Sofia on 28 October, Novinite reported. The vessel was identified by Maritime.bg as the Liberian-flagged Contship Jet, sailing from Haifa to Constanta. A tanker was sent to assist and the crew evacuated onto life rafts, according to Maritime.bg, which reported the ship was about 16 nautical miles off Cape Kaliakra when it was hit. The Sofia Globe reported that a UK shipping company said the ship was listing, had lost containers overboard and had been warned that a third drone was inbound. Updated 29 October: the ship, the Contship Jet, sank overnight, Bulgaria’s maritime administration said on Thursday, AP reported via The Independent. All 18 crew, 14 Filipinos and four Ukrainians, were rescued and taken to Varna. The navy commander, Rear Admiral Kiril Mihaylov, said the vessel was carrying 421 containers and that 20 had fallen overboard, Radio Bulgaria reported, and the manifest listed lithium-ion batteries, corrosive liquids, acids and flammable liquids. Initial inspections found no visible pollution, the government said.

The Black Sea is now a container risk, not only a tanker risk. Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey issued a joint statement condemning attacks on civilian shipping and agreed a trilateral coordination mechanism, and Stoyanov called the incidents a dangerous escalation. Maritime.bg listed the ROYAD MAMMADOV, ALFA WATAN, HS DIGNITY, ABLE and CHELSEA-3 among vessels sunk or damaged in similar incidents in recent weeks. Constanta is the main container gateway for Romania and a feeder destination for cargo that would otherwise move through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea, so sustained attacks raise war risk premiums and schedule risk on a route that sits outside the Red Sea story entirely.

Freight Rates

The 1 November rate increase is being undercut before it lands. Linerlytica said carriers’ plans for a general rate increase (GRI) on 1 November are “effectively doomed” as the winter slack season begins, with the largest lines undercutting each other, The Loadstar reported. Gemini Cooperation partners Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk were offering US$3,000 to US$3,200 and US$3,200 to US$3,400 per 40ft respectively for early November shipments, while MSC and the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance carriers quoted around US$3,400 to US$3,500 per 40ft. The consultancy’s reading is that volume is being prioritised over price.

The published index has not caught up. The Shanghai Containerised Freight Index showed Shanghai to North Europe at US$3,557 per 40ft on Friday 23 October, relatively unchanged week on week, according to the same report. The gap between that assessed level and the offers actually circulating for early November is the number shippers should watch, and it is the kind of divergence between published and transacted prices that the guide to container freight rate indexes explains across the WCI, FBX and SCFI families.

Capacity is not being withdrawn. Carriers are holding full deployments through November, with average weekly capacity from the Far East to North Europe expected to reach a record level, and about half the Asia to North Europe sailings diverted around the Cape of Good Hope have already returned to Suez. A shorter round voyage adds effective capacity without a single new ship, which is the arithmetic that makes a November GRI hard to hold.

Fleet & Capacity

The orderbook is heading for 16 million TEU. Alphaliner’s October Monthly Monitor put contracted capacity at 15.12 million TEU, equal to 43.9% of the trading fleet, with about 40 more large ships expected to join the pipeline and take the total towards 16 million TEU before the end of the year, Splash reported. Its projections show fleet capacity growing 9.2% in 2027 and 14.4% in 2028.

Maersk is negotiating for its first 24,000 TEU class. Alphaliner reported that the Danish carrier is in exclusive talks with Chinese yards for twelve LNG dual-fuel ships of 24,000 TEU, with options for twelve more, at an estimated US$240 million each, which would make the firm programme worth about US$2.88 billion. That would take Maersk beyond the Triple-E generation into the segment the largest container ship classes occupy. Against that pipeline, only 0.8% of the cellular fleet was commercially idle in Alphaliner’s latest survey, which is why charter rates are still at four-year highs while forward supply looks heavy.

Regulation & Policy

Washington changed the product list for its Canadian tariffs. A presidential proclamation signed on 23 October under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 removes some Canadian goods from the 50% tariff and adds more than 100 products, with the changes applying to goods entered for consumption from 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on 30 October, Container News reported, citing a trade update by Expeditors. Exemptions include certain plywood, paper and paperboard, packaging materials and selected machinery and refrigeration equipment; additions include paints, soaps, vinyl flooring, fibreboard and carpets. The administration said the Section 338 duties apply whether or not goods qualify as originating under the USMCA, and Customs and Border Protection will issue the implementing instructions.

What It Means

For anyone with cargo at Los Angeles or Long Beach in the next fortnight, the watchmen dispute is a dated, specific risk rather than a background worry. The union is small and the demand is narrow, but a picket line that other longshoremen respect stops the berth, and eight terminals covering the majority of Long Beach’s volume is enough to back up gates, rail and drayage across the complex within days. Holiday cargo already sitting behind a rail backlog has the least room to absorb it. Importers should confirm which terminal their containers discharge at, and treat 1 November as a live date until the parties announce otherwise.

The rate signal points the other way. Assessed indexes are holding near 15-week highs, but carriers are quoting early November space below the published level, capacity is at a record weekly high into North Europe, and the Suez return keeps adding effective tonnage. A GRI that is undercut before it takes effect tells shippers that the negotiating leverage has shifted back to them for the slack season, and that contract talks for next year should start from the offers actually on the table rather than the index print.

The Black Sea attack is the item with the least clarity and the most tail risk. A container ship hit by three drones while transiting to Constanta, with containers overboard and the crew in life rafts, is an escalation that insurers and charterers will price before the facts about damage are settled. For carriers, the practical questions are war risk cover for Black Sea calls and whether Constanta feeder rotations need to be re-timed; for shippers, it is another reason to hold buffer stock on south-east European inland supply chains.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe and transpacific rates rise as capacity sets records

Spot rates gained on both main headhauls in the week to 23 October, led by Asia-Europe, even as Sea-Intelligence recorded record deployed capacity.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

Rate rebound lifts composites, but Asia-Europe indexes split

Drewry's WCI rose 3% to US$4,485 per 40ft for the week to 15 October, but Asia-Europe lane indexes moved in opposite directions in the same week.

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