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ContainerSignal Daily: Alliances close in on a full Suez return

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 15 min read

Evergreen will send its first ships through the Suez Canal this week, joining its Ocean Alliance partners and leaving Zim as the only major line still routing Asia-Europe services around the Cape of Good Hope. Linerlytica’s report on 3 November has the 16,556 TEU Ever Eon and Ever Edit on eastbound Suez transits of the Ocean Alliance’s NEU7/CES service on 7 and 11 November, with the 20,124 TEU Ever Gifted on the alliance’s MD2 loop on 16 November, the Loadstar reported.

Yang Ming and HMM follow next month with their Premier Alliance partners. The alliance’s Asia Mediterranean 1 service resumes Suez transits with a new call at Sokhna for Asia-Red Sea cargo, on a rotation of Ningbo, Shanghai, Shekou, Singapore, Sokhna, the canal, Damietta, Ambarli, Izmit, Mersin, Damietta, back through Suez, Singapore, Kaohsiung and Ningbo, starting with Yang Ming’s 11,714 TEU YM Trust at Ningbo on 13 November. The revised loop turns in 84 days with 12 ships of 11,700 to 14,000 TEU from Yang Ming, against 16 ships on the present Cape routing. An HMM spokesperson told the Loadstar the decision was taken “from a Premier Alliance perspective, following a comprehensive review of market conditions and safety aspects.”

Linerlytica’s conclusion is that all three main alliances, plus MSC, will be fully back through Suez by the first quarter of 2027, with Zim the only major carrier left on the Cape, possibly because of its Israeli nationality. Gemini Cooperation partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have already signalled a full return by the same quarter, after Monday’s ME1 switch to a trans-Suez rotation. The canal is filling up: Drewry counted 62 Suez transits last week, the highest weekly level this year, against two vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

Today’s Signals

Freight Rates

The transpacific led the composite lower in Drewry’s 29 October assessment. The World Container Index fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40ft container, with Shanghai to Los Angeles down 6% to US$7,514 and Shanghai to New York down 5% to US$9,631, Drewry said. The Loadstar described the Los Angeles leg as the steepest one-week fall since June 2025, while Asia-Europe held: Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 1% to US$3,686 and Shanghai to Genoa was unchanged at US$4,151. Drewry attributed the transpacific move to easing US import demand and cited the National Retail Federation’s forecast of an 11% month on month fall in US ocean import volumes in November.

Index (provider)Trade laneUnitPeriodLevelChangeSource
World Container Index (Drewry)Composite, eight east-west lanesper 40ftWeek to 29 Oct 2026US$4,429-3% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Los Angelesper 40ftWeek to 29 Oct 2026US$7,514-6% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to New Yorkper 40ftWeek to 29 Oct 2026US$9,631-5% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Rotterdamper 40ftWeek to 29 Oct 2026US$3,686+1% week on weekDrewry
World Container Index (Drewry)Shanghai to Genoaper 40ftWeek to 29 Oct 2026US$4,151UnchangedDrewry
FBX composite (Freightos Baltic Index)Global, weighted average of twelve lanesper 40ftWeek to 30 Oct 2026US$3,513-1%, from US$3,560Container News
SCFI composite (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as reported by Container News)Shanghai export lanes, all routesindex points30 Oct 20263,687.35+0.16%, from 3,681.34Container News
CCFI (Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as reported by Container News)China export lanes, all routesindex points30 Oct 20261,881.82+0.30%, from 1,876.27Container News
NCFI (Ningbo Shipping Exchange, as reported by Container News)Ningbo export lanes, all routesindex points30 Oct 20262,491.26-0.72%, from 2,509.30Container News
NYFI (NYSHEX, as reported by Container News)Asia to US West Coastindex level as published30 Oct 20267,724.52+1.92%, from 7,579.09Container News
IACI (Drewry, as reported by Hellenic Shipping News)Intra-Asia composite, 18 routesper 40ftWeek 43, reported 2 Nov 2026US$1,504+US$46Hellenic Shipping News

The 1 November rate increases did not hold. Carriers had announced general rate increases of US$2,000 to US$3,000 per 40ft from 1 November, but Linerlytica found Gemini carriers quoting the lowest spot levels for early November shipments, with Hapag-Lloyd at US$3,000 to US$3,200 per 40ft and Maersk at US$3,200 to US$3,400, and MSC, the Ocean Alliance and the Premier Alliance at US$3,400 to US$3,500, the Loadstar reported. MSC had targeted US$4,500 per 40ft on Asia to North Europe, US$5,000 on Asia to west Mediterranean and US$5,100 on Asia to east Mediterranean, and CMA CGM US$4,900 and US$5,200 respectively, which are announced targets rather than transacted levels.

The Chinese benchmarks barely moved while the global composites fell. The SCFI added 0.16% to 3,687.35 points on 30 October, the CCFI 0.30% to 1,881.82 and the NCFI slipped 0.72% to 2,491.26, while the FBX global index lost 1% to US$3,513 and NYSHEX’s NYFI rose on all five monitored lanes, including 1.92% to 7,724.52 on Asia to US West Coast, Container News reported. The gap is methodological rather than a contradiction: NYFI measures rates on containers that actually shipped, while the WCI assesses spot quotes on selected lanes. The guide to container freight rate indexes sets out how far these baskets differ.

Intra-Asia rates held as congestion eased at the largest hubs. Drewry’s Intra-Asia Container Index rose US$46 to US$1,504 per 40ft, with Shanghai to Singapore down 3% to US$1,889 and Shanghai to Tanjung Pelepas down 2% to US$2,053, while Shanghai to Jebel Ali stayed elevated at US$8,584 per 40ft, Hellenic Shipping News reported. Average vessel waiting time at Ho Chi Minh City rose from 8 to 22 hours over the fortnight to week 43, and Drewry puts the index about 200% above its level a year ago.

Carrier Updates

Evergreen is relaunching its China to Red Sea service to feed the new Suez calls. The OGRD loop starts on 12 November with a rotation of Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou, Singapore, Jeddah, Sokhna, Aqaba, Jeddah, Port Klang and Qingdao, a 56-day round turn and an initial fortnightly frequency using four ships of 7,000 to 9,000 TEU, beginning with the 7,024 TEU Ever Superb at Qingdao, the Loadstar reported. A partial deployment on a new loop is a normal way to test demand before committing more tonnage.

MSC has extended its Shikra service from the Indian subcontinent to two Gulf ports. The first Khorfakkan call was made on 18 October by the 24,346 TEU MSC Micol on a rotation of Dalian, Xingang, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Nansha, Singapore, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Khorfakkan, Sohar and Dalian. The extended loop turns in 15 weeks with up to 15 ships of 14,000 to 24,000 TEU, and Linerlytica expects the largest of them to face waits of more than two weeks to berth at Khorfakkan. Adding mainline capacity to a port already in delay is how Gulf congestion has spread from feeders into deep-sea schedules.

Ports

Los Angeles and Long Beach have until 5pm Pacific time on Wednesday. About 250 watchmen, who handle security duties at container terminals, are set to walk out if the International Longshore and Warehouse Union and the Pacific Maritime Association fail to agree a contract, after members authorised a strike for 1 November and both sides extended talks to 4 November. The PMA says a stoppage would affect 85% of container traffic at Long Beach and 33% at Los Angeles, and forwarders Dimerco and Woodland Group warned that other ILWU members may decline to cross picket lines, which would hit vessel working, gate moves and inland transfers, the Loadstar reported. AIT Worldwide Logistics said it has seen no significant shift in routing so far. The deadline was already pushed once this week; this is the position 24 hours before it expires.

Gulf congestion is now a regional record rather than a UAE problem. Linerlytica describes container port congestion across the Middle East as the highest on record, with Oman’s Salalah at 84% yard density and berthing delays of up to 36 hours in Hapag-Lloyd’s latest advisory, Sohar waits of two to three days and Jeddah yards at 76% density, Splash reported. The consultancy notes the delays are concentrated at diversion gateways rather than spread evenly across the region, with Jebel Ali still largely limited to ad hoc calls, and expects the Middle East trades to keep attracting capacity even as rates soften elsewhere.

Trade Routes

Panama has reversed part of its drought regime. From 15 October the canal authority raised daily transit availability to 33 vessels and the maximum neopanamax draft to 49 ft, and reinstated last-minute reservations for panamax ships, Splash reported, citing Ursa Shipbrokers’ analysis of canal authority data. Gatun Lake averaged 85.80 ft over the first 30 days of October, 0.15 ft below its historical October average and 6.04 ft above the same month in 2023, with 303.3 mm of rain across the watershed from 1 to 29 October, 8.4% above the 30-year average. The daily level reached 86.56 ft on 29 October against an August low of 83.80 ft. The same analysis warns that a strong El Niño could bring another prolonged drought, so the relief is hydrological rather than structural.

Fleet & Capacity

Feeder charter rates are holding in the mid-teens of thousands of dollars a day. Contships Logistics renewed the Contship Sky to CMA CGM at US$16,250 per day for 11 to 13 months and fixed the Contship Way to ONE for 21 to 24 months at US$16,500 per day, without giving commencement dates, Splash reported. The company sold five ships in the first nine months of 2026 for US$59m and owned 27 vessels at the end of September, and in October signed a letter of intent with Hubei Guangji Green Energy Shipbuilding for 10 firm 1,324 TEU ships plus two sets of 10 options, with financing still under evaluation. Long fixtures at those levels indicate that operators still need committed feeder tonnage for relay trades, which is consistent with the network rebuilding around Suez and the Gulf.

Quick Bites

  • The European Commission approved €29.3m of German state aid for a new rail-road terminal near Aachen, with the EUREGIO terminal scheduled to begin operations in 2035, WorldCargo News reported.
  • Descartes integrated its MacroPoint ocean visibility product with SAP Business Network Freight Collaboration and Global Track and Trace, so container milestones such as vessel departure, arrival and gate moves can be read inside SAP, Container News reported. The integration is available through the SAP Store, with no customer numbers disclosed.

What It Means

The Suez return is now a capacity story rather than a routing story. Premier’s MD1 needs four fewer ships on an 84-day turn than it does around the Cape, and every loop that makes the same switch releases effective capacity without a single new delivery. That lands in a market where the 1 November rate increases were being discounted before they took effect, where the transpacific posted its sharpest weekly fall since June 2025, and where Drewry is repeating the US retail federation’s forecast of an 11% month on month drop in November import volumes. Shorter voyages and softer demand pull in the same direction.

The release is gradual and reversible, which is why carriers are hedging. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have kept a Red Sea caveat on their own return, Zim has stayed on the Cape, and the network is still running split strings in places. Suez transits at a 2026 weekly high of 62 vessels alongside two transits through Hormuz show two corridors moving in opposite directions in the same week, and Gulf congestion at a record is the cost of the second one.

For shippers, the practical read is uneven. Asia-Europe spot rates are more likely to keep easing than to rebound, given the capacity coming back and Linerlytica’s view that supply growth is outpacing demand, while the transpacific depends on US demand and on what happens at San Pedro Bay after Wednesday’s deadline. Panama’s partial reopening gives Asia to US East Coast all-water routings more room, but it is a rainfall-dependent reprieve, not a return to the pre-drought capacity position. The capacity cycle set out in the analysis of the half-finished Suez return is now close to complete on the Alliance side, and the rate effect is arriving with it.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Container rates are falling. The cost has moved to the rail leg

Drewry's index fell 3% in the week to 29 October while 35,688 boxes waited for trains at LA-Long Beach, showing where the import chain now jams.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

Asia-Europe rates fall even as the container network stays tight

Asia-Europe spot rates fell for a twelfth week while intra-Asia set another record and mid-size tonnage ran scarce. The two readings measure different layers.

Related reading

ContainerSignal Daily: Asia-Europe double sailings top 2021 peak

Sea-Intelligence finds Asia-Europe double sailings above 2021 peaks as about 60% of capacity returns to Suez and the Drewry composite hits a 15-week high.

ContainerSignal Daily: Maersk targets full Suez return by March 2027

Maersk expects all services back through Suez by March 2027, as Drewry warns the return releases 1.6 million TEU into a record orderbook.

ContainerSignal Daily: Charter rates hit a four-year high

Drewry's WCI rose 2% to US$4,585 per 40ft container, a 15-week high, while Braemar's charter index reached its highest level since 2022.