ContainerSignal
maerskearningsfreight-ratesxenetacapacitysuez-canallabourlos-angeleslong-beachimofeedersfleet-capacity

ContainerSignal Daily: Maersk lifts guidance as shares slide

By ContainerSignal Editorial · · 12 min read

Maersk raised its full-year guidance for the second time in three months on Thursday, and the shares fell anyway. The Copenhagen group now expects 2026 underlying EBIT of US$8.0bn to US$8.5bn, against US$4.5bn to US$6.5bn previously, but the whole range sits below the US$8.66bn average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg, and third-quarter EBIT of US$3.27bn missed the US$3.61bn consensus. The stock fell as much as 11.6% in early trading, its steepest one-day drop since April 2025, Bloomberg reported via gCaptain.

The quarter was strong by any historical measure. Revenue rose 27% to US$18.1bn, EBITDA to US$4.7bn from US$2.7bn, and EBIT to US$3.3bn from US$1.3bn, an 18.1% margin, Maersk said. Ocean EBIT reached US$2.6bn against US$567m a year earlier, with vessel utilisation at 96%. The gap between that and the share price reaction is the story: the market had already priced a better quarter, and AL Sydbank read the guidance as implying a slightly lower fourth quarter than the third.

Today’s Signals

Carrier Updates

Maersk earned the rate, not the volume. Average loaded freight rates rose about 46% year on year to US$3,287 per FFE, while loaded volumes slipped 0.8% to 3.37m FFE, Container News reported. Global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours in August, the highest since January 2023, and Maersk said average spot rates as measured by the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index were up 46% between the second and third quarters. The company attributed part of the cost increase to “the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz”, which it said raised bunker, network and container handling costs and hurt schedule reliability, alongside a severe Asian typhoon season and widespread congestion. Guidance assumes global container volume growth of about 4% for the year, and the US$1.0bn buyback continues. Maersk also disclosed an order for 26 dual-fuel ships of 18,600 TEU each for delivery in 2029 and 2030, plus APM Terminals’ greenfield Laldia terminal at Chattogram, rated at 900,000 TEU a year, and the start of operations at Suape in Brazil, which adds up to 400,000 TEU a year.

The Hormuz disruption has become a free time and detention problem. In an advisory on 5 November, Maersk extended total free time to 15 days for containers discharged at Salalah between 28 February and 25 March 2026 that had not gated out by 25 March, with the offer valid for boxes collected by 30 April 2026. For later cargo it set paid extensions: 12 days at US$360 per container at Salalah, and 8 days at US$100 for local movements or US$240 for cross border movements at Jeddah, Maersk said. The dates carry more information than the amounts. Containers discharged in the first quarter of 2026 are still being reconciled in November, which is what a long diversion around a closed strait looks like on a shipper’s invoice. The guide to demurrage and detention sets out who charges what once free time runs out.

PIL ordered seven methanol-ready feeders in China. Pacific International Lines has contracted Huanghai Shipbuilding for seven ships of 1,400 TEU each, 9,800 TEU in total, for delivery in 2029 and 2030, Container News reported. The ships measure 172 metres by 25 metres, carry pre-swirl vanes and propeller boss cap fins, and are described as methanol-ready, although the announcement does not confirm that they will be delivered with methanol dual-fuel engines. PIL did not disclose the contract value. Separately, the Singapore line launched its fortnightly JKS service on 5 November, deploying two ships of 1,900 to 2,600 TEU between Singapore, Laem Chabang and Jakarta, the Loadstar reported.

ZIM will add a third expedited China to Los Angeles service in December. ZX3 will call at Xiamen and Shanghai before Los Angeles, joining the existing ZEX and ZX2 products, with an advertised 12-day Shanghai crossing and 15 days from Xiamen, and a dedicated berth at West Basin Container Terminal, Container News reported. Those are advertised transits for a service that has not started, not demonstrated performance, and CMA CGM and Matson already sell comparable expedited products at the same gateway. The competitive content is the terminal arrangement, not the headline crossing time.

Freight Rates

Transpacific spot rates held while Asia to Europe kept climbing. Freightos data reported by FreightWaves put Asia to US East Coast at about US$9,900 per FEU in the week to 4 November, down 6% week on week but still about US$200 above two weeks earlier, and Asia to US West Coast near US$8,300 per FEU. Mediterranean rates rose 3% to US$4,375 per FEU and North Europe was unchanged at US$3,595 per FEU, after gains of 23% and 10% respectively over the past month, FreightWaves reported.

Carriers are still asking for more than the market is paying. November general rate increases are US$2,000 to US$3,000 per FEU on the transpacific and US$1,000 to US$1,500 per FEU on Asia-Europe at the start of the month, with further increases planned for mid-month, per the same Freightos update. Forwarders cited improving space availability and more consistent vessel schedules as reasons to doubt they will stick, and daily rates were flat in the first days of November. Announced increases and transacted rates are different numbers, and only the second one sets a contract. The guide to container freight rate indexes explains why the baskets behind these quotes diverge.

Ports

Los Angeles and Long Beach have until Friday midnight. The Pacific Maritime Association and ILWU Local 26 agreed on 4 November to extend their contract through midnight Pacific Time on Friday 6 November, after an earlier extension to 5pm on 4 November, PMA said. Local 26 represents about 250 workers who provide terminal security, and the affected facilities handle roughly 85% of Long Beach cargo and 33% of Los Angeles cargo, according to the employers’ association, which has warned that other ILWU members could honour picket lines. Talks continue with federal mediation. Nothing is settled: the strike threat now runs to Friday midnight, and a walkout by a small local would still reach vessel, yard and gate operations.

COSCO Shipping Ports lifted third-quarter throughput 8.4%. The terminal arm handled 42.3m TEU in the quarter, with revenue up 13% to US$484m and gross profit up 19.3% to US$128m, taking nine-month throughput to 122.4m TEU, 8.1% higher year on year, the Loadstar reported.

Fleet & Capacity

Xeneta expects global spot rates to fall 30% in 2027. The Xeneta Ocean Outlook 2027, presented by chief analyst Peter Sand at the Xeneta Summit in Munich on 5 November, forecasts a 30% fall in the global average spot rate and a 5% fall in the global average long-term rate, both as full-year 2027 averages against a third-quarter 2026 baseline, on demand growth of 2.5% to 4% and fleet growth of 6.8%, Xeneta said. The fleet arithmetic is 2.9m TEU of deliveries against 0.5m TEU demolished next year, after 4.9% growth in 2026, and demand growth slows from 4.7% in the first eight months of this year.

The Red Sea return is doing half the work before a single new ship arrives. Carriers committed 467,297 TEU of weekly capacity to the Red Sea in October 2026, roughly double the level at the end of August and 50% of the August 2023 pre-crisis figure, and the switch back to Suez has already released 599k TEU that was tied up in Cape of Good Hope diversions, according to the same report. Sand warned that the forecast is not a promise, pointing to the Red Sea crisis in 2024, US tariffs in 2025 and the Hormuz crisis in 2026 as shocks that overwhelmed fundamentals, and put third-quarter schedule reliability at 27% on time, with Far East to Europe at 4% in September. The capacity mechanics behind that number are set out in the analysis of the half-finished Suez return.

Regulation & Policy

The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework goes back on the table this month under a different US political backdrop. Technical negotiations (ISWG-GHG-23) run from 23 to 27 November and MEPC 85 from 30 November to 4 December, where adoption of the framework is due to be debated again, Hellenic Shipping News reported. The Democratic wins in the 3 November US midterms have prompted climate groups and academics to argue that Washington’s opposition will soften, with Pacific Environment and Opportunity Green both calling for adoption without further delay. That is advocacy, not a policy change: no shift in the US position at the IMO has been announced, and the framework’s fate still rests on the member states in the room.

What It Means

Maersk’s quarter is the cleanest available summary of 2026: volumes fell slightly while rates rose 46%, so the earnings came from disruption, not from demand. The guidance, as AL Sydbank noted, implies a weaker fourth quarter than third, which is consistent with the November rate increases being discounted before they took effect. For shippers heading into 2027 contract negotiations, the two forces now point the same way. Suez transits are releasing effective capacity without new deliveries, and Xeneta’s base case has spot rates 30% lower next year, with 2.9m TEU of new tonnage arriving on top. Shorter voyages also mean fewer ships needed per loop, so the rate effect can arrive faster than the orderbook suggests.

The near-term risks run the other way. A walkout by ILWU Local 26 at midnight on Friday would hit terminals handling most Long Beach cargo, and the Hormuz advisory shows how long a Gulf diversion keeps costing shippers after the headlines move on. The IMO meeting at the end of the month is the other dated event: adopting the Net-Zero Framework would establish a global emissions price for shipping, and delaying it again would leave carriers investing against national rules instead.

Sources

Background reading

The explainers behind today's stories, if you want the fundamentals first.

Asia-Europe rates are riding a half-finished Suez return

Sixty-three percent of Far East to Europe capacity now uses Red Sea routings, but many loops still return via the Cape. That gap explains the rate rebound.

World Container Index falls 3% as transpacific rates slide

Drewry's composite fell 3% to US$4,429 per 40ft as transpacific spot rates dropped, while Asia-Europe held and carriers pushed US$3,000 November increases.

Container rates are falling. The cost has moved to the rail leg

Drewry's index fell 3% in the week to 29 October while 35,688 boxes waited for trains at LA-Long Beach, showing where the import chain now jams.

Related reading

ContainerSignal Daily: Alliances close in on a full Suez return

Evergreen, Yang Ming and HMM join the Suez return, leaving Zim alone on the Cape, as transpacific spot rates fall the most since June 2025.

ContainerSignal Daily: LA-Long Beach strike deadline set to slip

A walkout by ILWU Local 26 watchmen at Los Angeles and Long Beach is expected to move to 4 November, as Drewry's composite falls 3% and a boxship sinks off Bulgaria.

ContainerSignal Daily: LA-Long Beach strike deadline looms

ILWU watchmen at eight Los Angeles and Long Beach terminals may strike on 1 November, while drones hit a container ship bound for Constanta.